Week 7: Baylor vs. Colorado Preview & Pick

Baylor Bears vs. Colorado Buffaloes Gambling Preview + Predictions

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Bears vs. Buffaloes Week 7 Lines

Date/Time: Saturday, October 16, 7 PM ET
Venue: Folsom Field, Boulder CO
Broadcast: None
Baylor Bears vs. Colorado Buffalos Betting Lines from Justbet
Money Line: Baylor (-110) Colorado (-110)
Spread: Baylor -1
Over/Under: 54 ½

Baylor Bears vs. Colorado Buffalos Preview

The Colorado Buffalos (3-2) host the Baylor Bears (4-2) the Saturday evening in a Big 12 game that is important for both teams. College football lines have Colorado as a slight 1-point favorite in this game with a total of 54.5.

The Buffalos did not get off to a good conference season getting shutout last week and while Baylor racked up 507 yards of offense last week they gave up 635 yards and lost their first Big 12 game of the season to Texas Tech.

Baylor is off to a good 4-2 start this season, as they look for their first ever winning season since joining the Big 12. This will be the last conference game these 2 teams play, as the Buffalos will be joining the Pac 10 next season.

Even though these 2 teams are in the Big 12 they are in different divisions and they have not faced each other since Colorado beat Baylor 43-23 in 2007.

This game is not a good match up for the Colorado defense, as their pass D only ranks 87^th in the nation and Baylor has a great aerial attack ranking 7^th in the nation in passing yards per game.

Colorado has yet to lose at home this season (3-0) including a solid win over Georgia in their last home game. Baylor is 1-1 on the road this season.

This season Baylor is 3-3 ATS and Colorado is 3-2 ATS.

Something has got to give in this game, as Baylor is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite and Colorado is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.

In their last games Colorado was crushed by Missouri 26-0 and Baylor lost to Texas Tech in a shootout 45-38.

Baylor and their great passing offense is led by duel-threat QB Robert Griffin III (1,735 yards 13 TD), who is also the Bears 2^nd leading rusher this season with 239 yards and 6 TD. In the loss to Texas Tech Griffin played well going 31/42 for 384 yards with 2 TD and 0 INT.

The Bears only had 80 rushing yards last week against Texas Tech, but they had to air it out since they were playing catch up in the 2^nd half. Overall, Baylor has the nation’s 51^st ranked rushing offense and they will be facing the strength of the Colorado defense, which is their run defense that ranks 20^th in the nation.

Colorado will have to contain Griffin and not allow him to make the big play down the field and they also have to keep him in the pocket and not let him get outside to pick up yards on the ground.

The Colorado passing offense ranks 80^th in the nation and even though QB Tyler Hansen (833 yards 5 TD 5 INT) was yanked in the 3^rd quarter against Missouri he will be the starter in this game. Last week against Mizzou Hansen 15/21 for 117 yards, but he could not lead the Buffalos into the end zone. Hansen should improve upon those numbers facing a Baylor pass defense that ranks 81^st in the nation and gave up 427 passing yards last week against Texas Tech.

Colorado’s offensive line has to play well in this game, as Baylor has a decent pass rush with 12 sacks on the season. The Buffalos have had trouble in pass protection this season only ranking 95^th in the nation in sacks allowed (14).

RB Rodney Stewart had 91 rushing yards last week against Missouri and he will have to play well in this game, especially if Hansen struggles again. Baylor’s rushing D ranks 62^nd in the nation, but last week they really struggled giving up 173 rushing yards to a Texas Tech team that only has the nation’s 103^rd ranked rushing offense.

Even though Baylor does not feature a great defense and Colorado is tough to beat at home I think Griffin will have a good game against a suspect Buffalos’ secondary and the Bears will come out and win this game moving to 2-1 in Big 12 play.

Betting Trends

Baylor is 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite, 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games against teams with a winning record, and has an Under record of 8-2 in their last 10 road games.
Colorado is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, and has an Over record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.

Pick: Baylor -1

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Jason Green is a new contributor to Cappers Picks and is hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of  Cubs fans.