Michigan Wolverines vs Northwestern Wildcats Gambling + Handicapping
I was surprised to open the paper Monday and see the Michigan Wolverines sitting at #12 in the most recent rankings. Sure they did a number on Minnesota but that was just Minnesota right…although there was San Diego State and Eastern Michigan before that.
Michigan vs Northwestern
Ryan Field – Evanston, IL
Saturday October 8 – 7:00PM
Moneyline: Michigan -290, Northwestern +245
Spread (ATS): Michigan -7.5
Over/Under: 59
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes
Michigan
The competition has been low but the Wolverines might have finally found a leg to stand on defensively – they have given up only 10 points in their last three games combined.
This week’s game against Northwestern will definitely test the Wolverines D. Northwestern Quarterback Dan Persa returned to the field last week against Illinois and he looked pretty sharp in throwing 4 TDs. Now that he is back the Wolverines will be tested more than they have been since their come from behind win against Notre Dame. If they pass this test then they might be closer to earning that lofty ranking.
At under a touchdown there might be some good value on Michigan this week. Northwestern had a crushing loss last week and is still the lesser talented team if you look at these squads objectively. The one thing that is discouraging for Big Blue is that the Wildcats were able to bottle up Illini athletic QB Nathan Scheelhaase in the running game last week. Can they do the same to Denard Robinson who is a much superior runner (and worse thrower)? [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Northwestern
The last quarter and a half of last week’s game are ones Northwestern would rather forget. Last week they had Illinois on the ropes and they let them come all the way back and win to preserve their perfect start. This week they have another chance to dash the hopes on an undefeated conference mate when Michigan comes to town. Northwestern hasn’t beaten Big Blue at home since 2000.
Offensively the Wildcats are more than capable than keeping up with Michigan. Illinois is a pretty good defensive team and their offense was rolling for a half and very late to keep the pressure on. Michigan gave up more than 500 yards of offense to Notre Dame earlier in the year. The Irish might have better balance than NW but the style of attack is similar and even though the surrounding personnel might not be as good ,Dan Persa is a better quarterback than Tommy Rees.
I have liked Northwestern all season as a sleeper/upset candidate. They came through in week one on the road at BC and almost did so again last week. The key will be slowing down Denard Robinson running the ball but everybody knows that – and few have. Based on last week’s performance maybe the Wildcats have the discipline to do. I love their upset potential.
ATS Pick: Northwestern +5.5
Over/Under Pick: Over
Score Prediction: Northwestern 41 – Michigan 38
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