NCAA Football Odds – Troy Trojans vs Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Free Pick & Preview
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Trojans at Blue Raiders Matchup
Tuesday October 5 – 8:00PM
Johnny Red Floyd Stadium – Murfreesboro, Tennessee
Troy (2-2) vs MTSU (2-2)
Moneyline: No current moneyline
Spread Favourite: MTSU -3.5 (-110)
Over/Under: no current O/U line
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Troy
Troy is coming off a bye week after a less than spectacular win over Arkansas State in their conference opener. This followed a 1-2 non-conference start which confirmed what everyone suspected – that this Troy team is not as good as the one of the last few seasons when they have dominated the Sun Belt (20-2 the last three years). That record includes 3 straight victories over Middle Tennessee. They have actually won the last four in the series, covering each time.
While there is a new face running the team in QB Corey Robinson, the reason for their struggles is that a weak defense seams to have gotten even weaker this year. Points per game allowed are up a field goal at just over 32ppg and the defense is the fourth worst in the nation defending the pass. Troy is known for being able to recruit fantastic athletes but the coaching staff has not been able to mold them into a defense yet. Last week they gave up 28 points to Arkansas State. In the previous three meeting between these two teams their average was 12.
Even with the loss of the great Levi Brown (who threw for more than 4000 yards last season) the Trojans are still able to sling it. Redshirt frosh Corey Robinson beat out junior Jamie Hampton and has thrown for over 1200 yards already, putting him in the top 20 in the nation. He and Jerrel Jernigan have formed a good relationship although more big plays are expected. In short, despite the defensive shortcomings Troy can keep itself in the game on offence.
MTSU
Dwight Dasher is back. Arguably no one player is more important to his team than he is and his absence makes a 2-2 start acceptable when being undefeated to this point was expected. Both losses were by only a TD to less than stellar foes, Memphis and Minnesota, but if MTSU does not focus on this weeks opponent another loss could easily occur in what should be a very entertaining Sun Belt shootout. I hope Dasher is up to speed and in shape to dazzle us. 
MTSU lost only one game in conference last year. It was to Troy and it was in part because Dasher had a subpar performance. He was held to under 300 yards of total offense something that only happened one other time in a game in which he started and finished last season. As a senior this is his chance to give this senior class their first win against Troy. There are a lot of expectations given the suspension but he is more than capable of being the reason MTSU breaks Troy’s stranglehold on the Sun Belt.
Can you tell how big a deal Dasher is? His play should determine the outcome here. If he stinks Troy will rout them. If he is good we have a game and if he is better than that MTSU might run the table in the conference and maybe even beat Georgia Tech in a couple of weeks. But how do you predict a players performance given his circumstances. I am going to play the averages and go with something in the Middle (get it?).
The Pick: Dasher plays well but make a couple of costly mistakes. Neither team plays much defense but a key takeaway shifts momentum when it matters most. Very tight and entertaining for a change in the series.
College Football Gambling Trends
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 Tuesday games.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
Blue Raiders are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Blue Raiders are 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 games following a ATS win.
Blue Raiders are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as a favorite.
Trojans are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings.
Favorite is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 meetings.
Score Prediction: MTSU 41 – Troy 38
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