NCAA Football Odds – San Diego State Aztecs vs BYU Cougars Free Pick & Preview
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Aztecs at Cougars Matchup
Saturday October 9 – 6:00PM
Lavell Edwards Stadium – Provo, Utah
San Diego State (3-1) vs BYU (1-4)
Moneyline: SDST -200, BYU +175
Spread Favourite: SDST -5
Over/Under: 52
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
San Diego State
The Aztecs are off to a good start this year with the only blemish on their record a three point loss to Missouri, no shame in that. Their wins may not be the most impressive but their domination of Utah State 41-7 two weeks ago is looking better and better given Aggies scare of Oklahoma in the opener and their destruction of BYU just last week. BYU should be concerned this week even though they have traditionally handled the Aztecs quite easily.
The Aztecs are tough to defend because of a high quality passing attack led by a QB most are not familiar with, Ryan Lindley. Lindley is a local kid who had lots of offers but decided to stay close to home. The Aztecs are grateful as this junior is improving every year and from a physical tools perspective might be the best QB in the MWC. He has a great arm and is likely to play on Sundays after his Aztec career is over.
Lindley also has one of the best receiving duos in the nation to throw to. Vincent Brown and DeMarco Sampson, both seniors, are reliable targets competing with each other each week. So far Brown has the edge in catches (20-19) but Sampson is averaging close to 20 yards per reception – they both have two TDs. The fact they have two strong receivers makes the Aztecs very hard to defend as Lindley has multiple options when he drops back. 
This will be a big challenge for the BYU secondary.
BYU
This season is hardly the swan song that the administration had in mind after announcing that the Cougars would leave the Mountain West Conference. After winning their opener over Washington they have proceeded to lose four in a row. Losing to Air Force, Florida State and Nevada might have been OK but getting dominated by in state rival Utah State was unexpected and unacceptable to the Cougar faithful.
The Cougars have generally had a very experienced team. Sometimes their players are returning from Mormon missions and it isn’t uncommon to see 22 year old sophomores on the roster. This year one of the challenges that coach Bronco Mendenhall is having is that his team is very young, especially at QB where due to injuries BYU is starting true freshman Jake Heaps. Heaps is very highly touted but thus far that buzz looks unwarranted. It might in time but compared to Cougar signal callers of the past he has been a disaster.
BYU has dominated the Aztecs recently. They have 4 straight double digit victories in the series and eight wins in the last nine contests between these conference rivals. Despite the current success of fellow MWC programs TCU and Utah, BYU is the program in the conference with the greatest history. Now that they have announced they are leaving to go independent there are a slew of teams looking to beat them down. It will be San Diego State’s turn on Saturday and I like their chances.
The Pick: It is hard to back a team that is as messy as BYU is these days. That said I thought the spread would be a little smaller here – around a pickem. If it drops I am all over the Aztecs.
College Football Gambling Trends
Aztecs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games on grass.
Aztecs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Cougars are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games as an underdog.
Cougars are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Over is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings.
Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 33 – BYU 30
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