Marshall vs. Southern Miss Free Week 5 Preview & Pick (Oct. 2)

NCAA Football Odds – Marshall Thundering Herd vs Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles Free Pick & Preview

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Thundering Herd at Golden Eagles Matchup

Saturday October 2 – 8:00PM
M.M. Roberts Stadium – Hattiesburg, Mississippi
Marshall (1-3) vs. Southern Miss. (3-1)
Moneyline: No Moneyline posted
Spread Favourite: Southern Miss -10 (-110)
Over/Under: 51.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)

Marshall

After some tough losses to begin the season the Thundering Herd finally broke into the win column, edging Ohio by a point at home as a 6.5 point favourite.  Even though they haven’t got off to a great start they have a chance to redeem themselves with their first conference game against at Southern Miss.  Two years ago the Thundering Herd wandered into Hattiesburg and upset the Eagles, winning by 7.  A victory like that would take some of the sting away from losses to Bowling Green and West Virginia.

After a full slate of non-conference games it is clear that Marshall has plenty of room for improvement.  Both their offense and defense have been mostly mediocre to bad, the way things are going so far this season holding Ohio State to less than 50 points might count as one of their greatest feats.  They just can’t seem to combine a good defensive performance like they had against West Virginia with a good offensive won like they had against Bowling Green, where they scored a season high 28 points (I know, not all that impressive).  Until they start playing complete games victories will be hard to come by.

Marshall has historically played Southern Miss pretty tough.  They may have only won one of their last five in this series but the majority of those games were decided by less than a TD and they are 2-3 ATS over that stretch including the aforementioned road upset victory.  Marshall needs this early victory as their next few conference foes will be more challenging until they face UAB in November.

Southern Miss

The Golden Eagles rebounded from their opening loss against South Carolina with three wins in a row.  None of them has been especially impressive and last week’s conference opener against Louisiana Tech was a squeaker, 13-12 victory, in which Southern Miss outgained their foes by more than 100 yards but still had to sweat out the victory.

One key to the game will be the health of DeAndre Brown.  Many think he is an NFL talent but this year he he hasn’t shown much and he missed the game against Louisiana Tech due to injury.  He can be a difference maker with his size and playmaking ability but this year his performance has been dreadfully uneven.  Through three games he has just 12 catches and 2 TDs, both of which were after games had been decided.  In his absence last week QB Austin Davis spread the ball around effectively and he will be forced to do so again if Brown can’t answer the bell.

Conference USA looks a little more wide open with East Carolina playing well and Houston losing Case Keenum.  If Southern Miss wants to be a real part of the mix than they have to win this game and use it to tighten things up for a key divisional showdown against ECU next week.  Marshall will fight them hard all game long but the Eagles defense should provide enough stops for Southern Miss’s offense to out score the struggling Thundering Herd.

The Pick: 10 points seems like a lot for a team that might be missing its top offensive weapon.  I like Southern Miss to win but not sure they can meet the double digit spread.

College Football Gambling Trends

Thundering Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Thundering Herd are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Thundering Herd are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Golden Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Golden Eagles are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0.

Score Prediction:  Southern Miss 31 – Marshall 24

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