Week 5: FAU vs. USF Preview & Pick

Big East Football Previews – Florida Atlantic vs South Florida

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Owls at Bulls Matchup

Date/Time: Saturday, Oct. 2 7 p.m. (ET)
Venue: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa FL
Broadcast: ESPN3.com
Owls @ Bulls Lines by SI
Pointspread: Bulls -21
Over/Under: 50.5
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FAU

The Florida Atlantic Owls out of the Sun Belt Conference take on the South Florida Bulls of the Big East this upcoming Saturday night in Tampa. Game time is set for 7:05 p.m. (ET).

Florida Atlantic started its season with a thrilling 32-21 win on the road against UAB as a 13 point underdog by blocking a potential 28 yard game-winning field on the final play. The Owls followed that up with a strong performance in a hard-fought 30-17 loss to Michigan State as a 26 point underdog.

Last week they fell to 1-2 after losing to North Texas 21-17 in both team’s Sun Belt Conference opener. The Owls were a 9 ½ point home favorite in this one.

The Owls strength on offense revolves around their passing game led by QB Jeff Van Camp. He has completed 58-of-91 attempts for 745 yards and five TD’s. WR Lester Jean has been his No.1 target with 22 receptions for 317 yards and two TD’s.

The running game has only produced 219 yards in the first three games, but RB Alfred Morris has 211 of them on 53 carries.

USF

South Florida comes into this game fresh off a 24-12 win over Western Kentucky. This one was a bit too close for comfort as the Bulls were a 27 ½ point home favorite but could not put the game away until late in the fourth quarter. They opened the season with a 59-14 romp over Stony Brook as a 36 point home favorite and then lost to No.8 Florida 38-14 as a 14 ½ point road underdog.

The big story for the Bulls this season has been their 22nd nationally ranked ground game led by RB Demetris Murray. They have gained 650 yards in their first three games with Murray rushing for 223 yards on 36 carries. South Florida also has three other backs that have run for at least 100 yards.

Florida Atlantic is 5-5 both straight-up and against the spread in its last 10 games. The Owls are 3-2 SU and ATS in their last five road games. The total has stayed ‘under’ in six of their last 10 games.

South Florida is 5-5 SU in its last 10 games and 4-6 ATS. The Bulls are 5-1 SU in their last six home games but just 3-3 ATS. The total has gone ‘over’ in six of their last 10 games.

The last time these two teams played one another was in 2007 with South Florida coming out on top 35-23 as a 17 point road favorite. This time around the Bulls get it done with a powerful ground game that will be able to wear down an Owls defense that gave up 257 yards rushing to North Texas last week.

FLA ATLANTIC (1 – 2) at S FLORIDA (2 – 1) – Betting Trends:

The total has gone OVER in 6 of Florida Atlantic’s last 8 games on the road
South Florida is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
FLA ATLANTIC is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 21.5 or more points since 1992.

The Pick: South Florida -21

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David Schwab is a regular contributor to the Cappers Picks Blog. While not cheering for his beloved Philadelphia Eagles David can be found working on his blog. David wants to hear from you so please comment below.