NCAA Football Odds – TCU Horned Frogs vs Colorado St. Rams Free Pick & Preview
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Horned Frogs at Rams Matchup
Saturday October 2 – 2:00PM
Sonny Lubick Field at Hughes Stadium – Fort Collins, Colorado
TCU (4-0) vs Colorado State (1-3)
Moneyline: No moneyline posted
Spread Favourite: TCU -33
Over/Under: 53.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
TCU
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
The Horned Frogs are gunning for another BCS bid and every game counts. They are 4-0 and have been relatively unchallenged. Last week it took them a little while to prove they were superior team against SMU but in the end it was a 17 point victory and those who watched the game could easily see when the tide turned. In my opinion the mark of really good teams is that their is a moment in each game where they can and do exert their dominance over the opposition and I saw this last week.
Speaking of dominance, TCU has beaten Colorado State six times in a row with a very strong 5-1 ATS record in those contests. Last year they were 23 point favourites at home and this year they are an amazing 33 point favourites as the visitors. That large number is a combination of the strengths and weaknesses of both teams and given my faith in TCU I am not immediately scared by it ,even though they are only 2-2 ATS this season. Those two victories were their largest spreads of the season so they know how to throttle bad teams. 
The only thing that might give me pause here is the status of leading rusher Ed Wesley who suffered a concussion last week against SMU. TCU still has great options in their running game but Wesley was really emerging and was their best at protecting the ball. RB Matthew Tucker has had a tendency for fumbling so I would expect to see more from freshman Waymon James this week. He is a bit of a bowling ball with a nose for the end zone – two TDs last week.
Colorado State
The Rams got their first win of the season last week edging out Idaho in an upset victory. This just might be their only victory all season as they lost to everyone else on their remaining schedule last season. A few of those are almost guaranteed losses including this week against TCU. The margin may be in doubt but there is no way that Colorado State can upset this TCU squad.
The one thing the Rams do well is throw the ball, even if sometimes it is to the other team. With nothing to lose, or no better alternatives, they have been running out freshman QB Pete Thomas. A big guy from California he has the Rams passing attack ranked at 26th in the nation so far. Unfortunately he is throwing more INTs than TDs, 7-4, and is backed by the worst rushing attack in the FBS. The Rams are only averaging a startling 59ypg on the ground. TCU is so good on defense that you don’t want to be one dimensional.
Sorry Rams fans but the only question this week is whether your team can keep it respectable against one of the best teams in the country. Given Colorado State’s composition that seems unlikely and that this game might be over by about the 20 minute mark.. Don’t feel too bad though, TCU will play New Mexico the last week of the season and probably beat them up even worse in their final BCS push.
The Pick: TCU seems well aware of the microscope they are under. SMU may have had the talent to make them sweat a bit but not so for Colorado State. Despite the huge line I would back the Horned Frogs and really like the over.
College Football Gambling Trends
Horned Frogs are 7-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Horned Frogs are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games following a ATS loss.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Horned Frogs are 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 conference games.
Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games as a home underdog.
Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Rams are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Score Prediction: TCU 56 – Colorado State 6
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