NCAA Football Odds – Duke Blue Devils vs Maryland Terrapins Free Pick & Preview
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Blue Devils at Terrapins Matchup
Saturday October 2 – 6:00PM
Capital One Field at Byrd Stadium – College Park, Maryland
Duke (1-3) vs Maryland (3-1)
Moneyline: Maryland -300, Duke +250
Spread Favourite: Maryland -7.5
Over/Under: 62.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Duke
Duke is really struggling this season. They couldn’t do anything to stop Wake Forest and lost by 2 TDs as home favourites to Army, the weakest of the service academies. Their only win so far is against Elon College and they might not be favoured in another game this year. To me this represents the best chance to avoid an 11 game losing streak to close out the season.
Despite the losing, the Blue Devils are moving the ball up and down the field. They are 38th in yards per game and scoring a very respectable 30ppg, but you are not going to beat many teams giving up an average of 44ppg including a disgusting 54 to Wake. After seeing that number it is amazing that Duke only surrendered 62 to the defending national champs Alabama. Clearly tightening up the D is a top priority.
Duke won this matchup last year but hasn’t won at Maryland since 1999. Last year was the only time in the last 10 that Duke was actually favoured in the contest and you can bet the UM was not happy with the result or the perceived change in the ACC pecking order. Last year was not a fluke as Duke was the better team, that is no longer the case and the results this year are proving it. 
Maryland
Nearly everyone was writing that coach Ralph Friedgen was on the hot seat this year. After early success at Maryland his teams have really struggled, slipping to the bottom of the ACC, and dare I say it, below Duke. This season the Terps have taken advantage of a weak early schedule to pile up three wins and given the sad state of Duke, Virginia and Wake Forest may actually become bowl eligible this season.
Even though they have three wins in four games it is tough to identify a strength for this team. Their only win against decent competition was a 17-14 win over Navy but they were outgained in that one by more than 200 yards and in looking at the breakdown I still can’t figure out how they emerged victorious. All of their stats are inflated by a blowout of Morgan State (62-3) which make their scoring and defensive averages look better than they are.
Like any team the key to victory is the play of the QB. Maryland has played two so far this season but with an injury to Jamarr Robinson Danny O’Brien will be getting all of the snaps this weekend. He has the far better numbers though, throwing for 3 TDs in last weeks win over Florida International. With Duke this week UM gets a bit of a reprieve before back to back road games against Clemson and Boston College.
The Pick: I like Maryland in this spot. They are the better team and are at home playing a team they used to dominate. They surely have revenge on their mind and if the spread drops a half point I will take it.
College Football Gambling Trends
Blue Devils are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games in October.
Blue Devils are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games following a ATS loss.
Terrapins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Terrapins are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
Terrapins are 23-8 ATS in their last 31 home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
Score Prediction: Maryland 31 – Duke 24
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