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Week 4 Akron vs. Indiana Preview & Pick (Sept. 25)

NCAA Football Odds – Akron Zips vs Indiana Hoosiers Free Pick & Preview

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Zips at Hoosiers Matchup

Saturday September 25 – 7:00PM
Memorial Stadium – Bloomington, Indiana
Akron (0-3) vs Indiana (2-0)
Moneyline: Indiana -1600, Akron +900
Spread Favourite: Indiana -22.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 57.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)


The Zips used to be a mid-tier MAC program but when they sunk to the bottom they went searching for a new coach.  So far Rob Ianello’s term has not yielded much optimism for the  future with three opening losses including a loss to FCS Gardner-Webb as 16.5 point favourites.  There is a very good chance that Akron might go without a win all season despite returning 13 starters and facing a MAC level schedule.

Not surprising given the above there is little positive to look at when examining the Zips.  Neither the offense or defense has been very good but if I had to pick a strength it would be the running game.  The two headed monster (exaggeration) of Alex Allen and Nate Burnley are both averaging almost 5 yards per carry and Allen has scored three TDs. 

The problem is they have been in the lead so infrequently so they can’t use their ground game to grind out victories.

With a spread this big it is almost enticing to take the Zips out for a spin.  After all they are 2-1 ATS against the Big Ten the last two season and 7-4 ATS in non-conference games on the whole.  They also seem to respond to their underdog status as they are 8-3 ATS as a large dog of 21.5 or more since 1993 (I know, questionable relevance).  If you are one of those bettors who refuses to back bad teams then you are going to have to look away from the Zips in this one and all season long.


The Hoosiers are 2-0 but haven’t really impressed in beating Towson and Western Kentucky.  They covered both games but the competition was weak and they were barely challenged in either.  The same should be the case again this week against a poor Akron team, one they have beaten twice in the last four seasons.

The Hoosiers might have the best passing offense in the Big 10.  QB Ben Chappell is a senior and he has two great targets in juniors Tandon Doss and Demarlo Belcher.  Both are big targets that give the Hoosiers the ability to move the ball down the field in a hurry.  Chappell had been especially sharp in the early going, completing almost 75% of his passes while throwing 5 TDs with no interceptions.  If the Zips can’t slow him down it will be a very long day for their defense.

Indiana needs to keep their eye on the prize this week instead of looking ahead at their next two opponents:  Michigan and Ohio State.  Even if they get off to a slow start because their minds are wandering they should have little trouble picking apart a Zips defense that is giving up 38pph (110th).  Indiana has covered the last two times against Akron but they have never been such heavy favourites in the series.  As mentioned earlier they are 2-0 ATS this year so maybe they are ready to handle expectations.

The Pick: Indiana will cruise to victory so the only question is whether they can cover.  I am going to pass but I think they will Akron’s ineptitude makes it unlikely they will sneak in the backdoor.

College Football Gambling Trends

Zips are 11-27 ATS in their last 38 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Zips are 1-7 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Hoosiers are 4-0-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a home favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Hoosiers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.

Score Prediction:  Indiana 42 – Akron 17

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.