NCAA Football Odds – TCU Horned Frogs vs SMU Mustangs Free Pick & Preview
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Texas Christian Horned Frogs at Southern Methodist Mustangs Matchup
Friday September 24 – 8:00PM
Gerald J Ford Stadium – Dallas, Texas
TCU (3-0) vs SMU (2-1)
Moneyline:
Spread Favourite: TCU -17.5 (-110)
Over/Under: 55.5
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TCU
Through their first three games the Horned Frogs are definitely looking worthy of BCS consideration. After being accused of taking their foot off the gas against Oregon State in the opener they have dominated their last two foes, including a Baylor team that some expect to surprise in the Big 12 behind dynamic QB Robert Griffin. SMU will present another challenge this week. Their pass happy offense can score points in a hurry and they are a definite contender in wide open conference USA.
TCU is a very balanced team. Everyone knows they can shut you down on defense but lost amid last year’s success was that they can score too..a lot. This year they are 6th in the nation in scoring at over 45ppg. They may not have a Heisman hopeful at running back but their overall run game is 9th in the country led by sophomore Ed Wesley. Wesley is picking up where he left off as a freshman and is averaging an amazing 8.7 yards per carry. His 4 TDs this season already match his total from last year where he was an important reserve. Now he is one of TCU’s best playmakers.
Though not in the same conference these teams have played in each of the last three seasons. All games were won by TCU but SMU covered in two of those, including last season. Strange as it may sound TCU’s record against the spread may be critical this year as they are being judged weekly not only by wins and losses but by dominance as well. Another complete performance is to be expected. 
SMU
Through three games SMU has shown a little bit of everything. In week one they almost upset Texas Tech (feistiness); in week 2 they dominated UAB (balance); and last week they revenged last year’s loss to Washington State (poor defense). Last week’s victory should have been a rout. Instead, the game was tied at halftime at Wazzu was able to move the ball successfully against the Mustang D. You can bet that TCU is smelling blood in the water coming into this game against an out of conference rival.
For SMU to have a chance againt TCU they have to be able to move the ball against the vaunted Horned Frogs defense. Last year their running game was non-existent (-1 net yards after sacks) which put a lot of pressure on the QB. This was actually an improvement from -8 net yards the year before. It is obvious that you have to establish some semblance of balance if you want to beat a team like TCU. If they get shut out in the running game again it is going to be a long night for Kyle Padron and Co.
Its going to be really tough for the Mustangs to hang with the Horned Frogs on Friday night. The atmosphere should be fantastic for this national TV game and it will be critical to get off to a good start to keep the crowd in the game. No matter how it starts this game will follow a familiar script as TCU exerts its dominance in all phases of the game. For entertainment sakes, we can only hope that the wacky offensive mind of June Jones has something cooked up to keep SMU in the ball game through half time.
The Pick: I usually shy away from backing heavy favourites but in this one I feel a bit more secure. TCU knows the whole world is watching and they have really shutdown SMU in the past. I would back TCU but it wouldn’t be my play of the week.
College Football Gambling Trends
Horned Frogs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS win.
Horned Frogs are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Horned Frogs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 non-conference games.
Horned Frogs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 5-2 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Score Prediction: TCU 42 – SMU 17
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