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Week 4 UAB vs. Tennessee Preview & Pick (Sept. 25)

NCAA Football Odds – UAB Blazers vs Tennessee Volunteers Free Pick & Preview

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Alabama-Birmingham Blazers at Tennessee Volunteers Matchup

Saturday September 25 – 12:20PM
Neyland Stadium – Knoxville, Tennessee
UAB (1-2) vs Tennessee (1-2)
Moneyline: Tennessee -550, UAB +425
Spread Favourite: Tennessee -13.5
Over/Under: 51
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UAB

The Blazers were surprising winners against Troy last week, taking the game by a single point by scoring with no time left on the clock.  This was a welcome change of fortune given they lost by the same single point to Florida Atlantic to open the season despite outgaining them by almost 100 yards.  In between they were humbled by SMU in a game that wasn’t as close as its 28-7 final score.  This UAB team is not very good.

During last week’s win it look slike UAB may have found itself a new QB.  Starting the season with David Isabelle running their attack they were looking for a clone of Joe Webb.  Isabelle ran for over 200 yards in the opener but after failing to move the offense against Troy was replaced by Bryan Ellis.  Ellis may not be much of a threat running but all he did was throw for over 400 yards in his first start.  Changing offensive philosophies midstream is never a good idea but you have to give yourself a chance to win and Ellis can do that flinging the ball around.

UAB has to score because their defense is atrocious.  They gave up 566 yards to Troy and are ranked 103 in the nation in yards allowed.  They lost to Tennessee two years ago, giving up 548 yards in the process but need to hold them to closer half of that to give their offense a real chance of putting enough points on the board to win.  Some C-USA squads can really hang with the big boys but UAB is stuggling with teams from the Sun Belt. 

A team from the SEC, even a bad one, should whip them pretty good.

Tennessee

All offseason Vols fans were eager to see the season start so they could put an end to all the Lane Kiffin craziness.  Now that they are 1-2, including two home losses, the mood is low in Knoxville.  Full disclosure no one expected this Tennessee team to hang with Oregon or Florida…but I think they were holding out hope that something positive would come out of these games.  The only thing we really learned is that Florida just ain’t right this year.

The Vols better grab a victory this weekend because looking at their schedule, the next best chance for a win is when they take a break from the SEC to play Memphis in early November.  Over the three games the thing that stands out the most with Tennessee this year is their inability to score.  Eliminating their 50 point game against FCS Tenn-Martin they have scored only 30 points in two games averaging about 300 yards of offense.  They really miss Bryce Brown now that Montario Hardesty has taken his legs to the NFL.  Tauren Poole is serviceable in the running game but against better defenses he has struggled to get it going.  QB Matt Simms is not good enough to do it all on his own.

Tennessee has won three straight against UAB but hasn’t covered in any of them.  The most recent matchup was in 2008 when the Vols won 35-3 as amazing 33 point favourites.  This year they have far less ground to cover given their weakened status but should still have enough skill to make a mockery of UAB again…especially at home in front of 100,000+ fans.  If they don’t this lost year may be worse than expected.

The Pick: Tennessee ain’t what it used to be but the Blazers never were anything to begin with.  The Vols should have no trouble using this game to remind fans that doomsday has not yet arrived.  I hope this drops point or two but as long as it is below a couple of TDs I feel pretty comfortable.

College Football Gambling Trends

UAB is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
UAB is 4-21 SU in its last 25 games on the road
UAB is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games at home

Score Prediction: Tennessee 34 – UAB 13

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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