NCAA Football Odds – Army Black Knights vs Duke Blue Devils Free Pick & Preview
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Black Knights at Blue Devils Matchup
Saturday September 25 – 3:00PM
Wallace Wade Stadium – Durham, North Carolina
Army (2-1) vs Duke (1-2)
Moneyline: Duke -250, Army +210
Spread Favourite: Duke -6
Over/Under: 56
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Army
Army is only a 3 point loss away from a perfect start to the season. Their wins haven’t been overly impressive (Eastern Michigan and North Texas) but any time you shut out an opponent like they did last week you must be doing something right. As an independent Army plays a bit of a different schedule. This game is critical because a win this week would put them in a great position to make the total of 6 victories required for a bowl game. P.S. They haven’t gone bowling since 1996.
Like the other service academies Army relies on an option offense (which they do not operate as well as Navy or Air Force). Teams are usually unfamiliar with this style which makes defending it challenging even though Army usually faces squads with much better athletes. When these two teams faced off last year Army ripped Duke for 266 yards rushing but still lost. In that game they were killed by turnovers, losing by 16 points even though they outgained the Blue Devils by 150 yards. Playing a tighter game will be critical.
This game is is a hard one to call. If Army limits its mistakes they will keep themselves in the game but if they get behind early they have a tough time playing catchup because they are so run oriented. QB Trent Steelman has thrown only 25 passes all season through three games. 
In their loss to Hawaii he threw only 4 passes even though they were behind most of the game. Army knows what they do best and they stick to it.
Duke
The Blue Devils had their best season in a long time last year, posting 5 victories. With only one under their belt thus far it is going to be hard to reach that total again, especially if they do not beat Army at home this weekend. Duke is coming off a beating against Alabama where they gave up 62 points to the number one team in the country. This week’s challenge will be infinitely more manageable.
Looking a the three games Duke has played so far it is hard to know how bad this team really is. Throwing out the loss to ‘Bama and focusing on the other two games (A win over Elon and a loss to Wake Forest) it appears that the Blue Devils are a team with a decent offense and a horrible defense. They may have beat FCS Elon but they gave up over 400 yards in the process and against Wake they gave up 500 yards and over 50 points to a team with a first time starter at QB. They seem to be feeling their graduation losses more on this side of the ball even though they lost their all time passer Thaddeus Lewis to graduation as well.
I guess it is easier to transition on offense when you have nine starters returning. Thus far sophomore QB Sean Renfree (a very highly touted recruit) has been pretty good. He is not as mobile as Lewis but stands in there to make completions. In Donovan Varner he has one of the best receivers in the ACC and look for him to connect with him early and often. Varner and Connor Vernon, who has really emerged this season, are very good pass catching duo with a combined 40 catches already.
The Pick: I have to admit I am always partial to option offenses especially when they are the underdog. Duke may no longer be a laughing stick but they are hardly a bully either. This game should be nice and tight. Great upset potential
College Football Gambling Trends
Black Knights are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. win.
Black Knights are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games as a road underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Black Knights are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 games as an underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Black Knights are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 non-conference games.
Blue Devils are 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a favorite.
Blue Devils are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games in September.
Blue Devils are 15-35-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.
Score Prediction: Army 28 – Duke 24
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