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Troy vs UAB Preview & Pick (Sept. 18)

Troy Trojans vs UAB Blazers Free Week 3 College Football Pick

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Trojans at Blazers Matchup

Saturday September 18 – 4:00PM
Legion Field – Birmingham, Alabama
Troy (1-1) vs UAB (0-2)
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Moneyline: Troy -155, UAB +135
Spread Favourite: Troy -3 (-110)
Over/Under: 58.5
Bet Now @ Betus.com!

Troy

The Trojans have been the beasts of the Sun Belt Conference and are one of the unsung teams in the nation, putting a scare into a score of BCS opponents over the years.  There was supposed to be a bit of a changing of the guard this year in the conference but the loss of Dwight Dasher at Middle Tennessee means that this team is likely to carry the banner for the conference again this season.  Last week they lost a close game to Oklahoma State.  Another close but no cigar performance as well as an indicator that this team is as dangerous as ever despite some roster turnover.

Troy is breaking in a new QB with the loss of Levi Brown but so far scoring hasn’t been much of a problem.  After two games they are averaging 34ppg and new starter Corey Robinson has completed over 70% of his passes.  They are also getting decent production from their run game, averaging over 150 yards per game with good per carry averages from their top backs Shawn Southward and DuJaun Harris.  Unfortunately the defense is not what it has been in the past.  Prior to last season they have not give up more than 24ppg in any of the previous 6 seasons.  Last year they were at just under 30 and this year they are at 34 after 2 games. That is not going to get it done.

Last season Troy beat UAB comfortably at home 27-14 as 7 point favourites – it was their lone win out of conference.  This season they are still the favourite on the road despite their personnel losses (only 9 starters returned).  Troy traditionally has very athletic teams which enable them to compete with almost anybody across the nation.  This is their last game before their Sun Belt opener against Arkansas State next week and it should end in victory.

UAB

The UAB Blazers have not had much success in their history.  They have earned a grand total of one bowl bid in their history, in 2004, and have not had a winning season since.  Last year coach Neil Calloway led the squad to five victories.  It may not sound like much but it is the highest win total of his tenure and the most since 2005.  Kudos to Callaway for avoiding scheduling FCS opponents for easy victories but it looks like last year’s five victories will be hard to repeat.

Last year the Blazers were led by do it all QB Joe Webb.  A stronger threat as a runner than a passer he left ranked second all time on the Blazer rushing list and third on the passing list.  Now he is trying to make it in the NFL at receiver but it appears they they have found a suitable replacement in sophomore David Isabelle.  Through two games his passing numbers have not been impressive but he has picked up where Webb left off in the ground game with nearly 250 yards and three TDs already. 

He needs to improve his accuracy (under 50% completion percentage) and stop throwing it to the other team for the Blazers to stay in games.

You would think that having nine starters back on defense would be a boon but when that same D gave up more than 32 points per game all you can hope for is some improvement.  Through two games this year they have averaged a cool 30 ppg against. 

Not exactly legendary but improvement still.  The key matchup will be covering Troy leading receiver Jerrel Jernigan.  Jernigan is slight and slippery with great speed .  If top DB Terrell Springs can do a decent job of keeping him in check than the defense will have a chance.  They were able to neutralize Jernigan last year (2 catches) but the Blazers still came up on the short end of the stick.

The Pick. The Blazers don’t scare anybody and Troy has the much better team. 

Being on the road has put the spread at a very nice margin to feel comfortable with.  Take Troy.

College Football Gambling Trends

Trojans are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games following a ATS win.
Over is 6-0 in Trojans last 6 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Trojans last 4 road games.
Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a S.U. loss.
Blazers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 4-0 in Blazers last 4 non-conference games.

Score Prediction:  Troy 37 – UAB 17

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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