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MTSU vs Memphis Preview & Pick (Sept. 18)

Middle Tennessee St. Blue Raiders vs Memphis Tigers Free Week 3 College Football Pick

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Blue Raiders at Tigers Matchup

Saturday September 18 – 7:00PM
Liberty Bowl Memorial Stadium – Memphis, Tennessee
Middle Tennessee (1-1) vs Memphis (0-2)
Moneyline: MTSU -200, Memphis +170
Spread Favourite: MTSU -4.5:
Over/Under: 55
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Middle Tennessee State

The Blue Raiders were all set for a fantastic season then a  bad decision by QB Dwight Dasher put it all in jeopardy.  This program was really on the come but without its dynamic playmaker they are second tier in the Sun Belt Conference.  I don’t want to pretend to understand Dasher’s personal circumstances but it is amazing what someone is willing to risk for a couple of grand.

Without Dasher MTSU made a valiant effort in the opener against Minnesota but came up short.  To give you an idea of his impact,  there was almost a 10 point swing in the spread when it was announced he was out indefinitely.  In his stead they have used two QBs.  Logan Kilgore got the start against Minnesota.  He wasn’t horrible but coach Rick Stockstill had to use Jeff Murphy against Austin Peay last week because Kilgore is nicked up.  This team was returning 8 starters on offense including 4 out of 5 linemen but without Dasher as the triggerman they are a bit lost.  It remains to be seen who will start this week.

Despite the state of flux the Blue Raiders shouldn’t have too tough a time with Memphis, a team they have beaten twice in 2007 and 2009.  Both of those were double digit victories.  That might be a bit much to ask of MTSU this time around but Memphis is sufficiently bad that they should be able to keep their winning ways going heading into SBC play next week against Louisiana.

Memphis

Memphis became a pretty lousy football team in a hurry making it hard to imagine that an NFL All Pro like D’Angelo Williams made his college home there.  They won only two games last year and have already dropped their first two games of the season this year.  In looking at their schedule I don’t see a potential win on the horizon.  All their weakest opponents are on the road making a win-less season a distinct possibility.  Hardly the way new coach Larry Porter wanted to start his term at his alma mater.

Their two early losses were by 42 and 22 points and they have struggled immensely on both sides of the ball, which is not surprising.  The only good thing to happen so far this season is the potential emergence of QB Ryan Williams.  After Cannon Smith left with a concussion last week he stepped in to throw almost 300 yards with three TDs.  Smith had been unimpressive and if Williams can repeat the performance again this week they may have found something in the big true freshman from Florida.  Thats a big if, some of the preseason mags didn’t even have him on the depth chart.

Anything is better than nothing, which is what the Tigers D has been so far this season.  They are giving up over 300 yards through the air and almost 200 on the ground, making players like Mississippi States Tyler Russell look like Sam Bradford (last year’s #1 draft choice).  If they keep giving up 49 points per game this will surely be a disaster of a season.  Worse than that it will be an embarrassment.  They are currently third worst in scoring defense nationally.  I expect that figure to improve after this game but a victory seems very unlikely.

The Pick: A Dasher-less MTSU still seems like a very safe play here as long as the spread stays under 7.  The over looks good too with Memphis’ new found passing attack

College Football Gambling Trends

Blue Raiders are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Blue Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. CUSA.
Blue Raiders are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 vs. S-Belt.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. loss.
Tigers are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games following a ATS loss.

Score Prediction:  Middle Tennessee 38 – Memphis 24

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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