Week 13: Southern Methodist Mustangs vs East Carolina Pirates Preview Free College Football Pick
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Mustangs at Pirates
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Friday November 26 – 2:00PM
Dowdy-Fickle Stadium – Greenville, North Carolina
SMU (6-5) vs ECU (6-5)
Moneyline: No ML posted at this time
Spread Favourite: Pick
Over/Under: 69.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
SMU
The Mustangs have been stumbling down the stretch winning only 2 of their last 5 games. They won last week against Marshall but losses at UTEP and at home to Houston eliminated them from being a threat the Conference USA South. With six wins already they should expect to go bowling next month and a win against East Carolina will improve their destination. This program was supposed to make a jump this season but with many pieces returning maybe next year will be their year.
QB Kyle Padron is just a sophomore and it looks like he has a promising future. He has thrown for a bunch of yards this season but if you look closely his completion percentage and yards per attempt numbers are below his freshman season. They need him to be more efficient running the offense. His backfield mate Zach Line has been a revelation. The guy is a beast at 235 pounds and his production has exploded with over 1100 yards already. He makes their opponents respect the running game of the Mustangs.
These teams have met just three times as members of C-USA. Southern Methodist won last year down in Texas, their only win in three games against the Pirates. It will be harder this year on the road where the Mustangs are just while ECU is nearly perfect at 4-1 at home. With a pick’em spread there is no magic to this one, you just have to pick the winner.
It shouldn’t be that hard right? 
ECU
The Pirates are finishing their season having lost three of their last four including an ugly road loss to Rice last week where they gave up 62 points to the Owls – who scored more than double their season average. ECU needs to finish strong to have some momentum going into the bowls and a victory over SMU would achieve that as well as get them a better bowl placement in the C-USA bowl hierarchy.
It may go without saying by looking at the score but the ECU defense was atrocious last week against Rice. They gave up more than 630 yards including more than 100 yards each on the ground to Jeremy Eddington and Sam McGuffie. They also gave up a whopping 13.5 yards per pass play. SMU has much better offensive talent so unless the defense finds some answers this week the losing is likely to continue.
Almost seventy points is a pretty high total but after seeing what ECU was capable, er incapable of last week I think that total is well within reach no matter who comes out on top. You would like to think the Pirates could make a final stand in their last home game of the season but they have done a complete 180 in terms of their identity and when a team can’t stop people it is hard to back them.
The Pick: The safest play to me is the over. If everything goes according to form this should be one of the more entertaining games of the weekend.
College Football Gambling Trends
Mustangs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Mustangs are 5-2-1 ATS in their last 8 road games.
Mustangs are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite.
Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 home games.
Pirates are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 conference games.
Score Prediction: SMU 45 – ECU 35
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