Week 12: Utah Utes vs SDSU Aztecs Preview Free College Football Pick
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Utah Utes vs San Diego State Aztecs
GO INSIDE THIS MATCHUP WITH OUR CFB ATS STATS —>
Saturday November 20 – 10:00PM
Qualcomm Stadium – San Diego, California
Utah (8-2) vs San Diego State (7-3)
Moneyline: Utah -135, San Diego State +115
Spread Favourite: Utah -2.5
Over/Under: 55.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
Utah
Which Utah team is going to show up in this battle to determine the second best team in the Mountain West Conference? The team that opened with 8 victories, the team that got slaughtered by TCU or the team that was lifeless against Notre Dame last week? The Utes have come crashing down the mountain and there will be no soft landing against an Aztec team determined to make this a season to remember.
The Utes are still averaging 37ppg but they have scored a combined 10 points the last two weeks. It was one thing to get shut down by TCU, who has the best defense in the country, but quite another to score only 3 points against an ND defense that hasn’t held a team below 12 points all season. To put it in perspective the even Purdue and Western Michigan outscored them against the Irish…Ugly.
Utah can derive some confidence from the fact that they haven’t lost to SDSU since 2005. The last four victories have all been by double digits and the Utes have been a perfect 4-0 ATS as well. The Utes need a complete 180 performance wise or else this last season in the MWC will leave a bitter taste in their mouth.
San Diego State
The Aztecs are only 11 points short of a perfect season and gave the Horned Frogs their toughest game of the season before losing last week. SDSU scored more points against TCU than they had given up in the previous 6 games including the aforementioned blowout of Utah. Even though they are coming home after a loss there is lots of reason for confidence on the part of the Aztecs. 
SDSU has one of the better balanced prolific offenses in the country. They have scored more than 21 points in every game this season as QB Ryan Lindley has blossomed throwing to unheralded receivers DeMarco Sampson and Vincent Brown. Their numbers are almost identical and they should both top 1000 yards receiving before the end of the season, maybe even this week.
Key to upsetting the Utes will be getting RB Ronnie Hillman back on track. Nobody runs on the Horned Frogs but Hillman has only one game with more than 64 yards in the last 4. They need to establish balance against Utah if they are going to challenge a tough and fast, albeit currently reeling, defense. There may not be BCS implications in this one but this is of the better contests on the Saturday card.
The Pick: It is hard to figure Utah, maybe they just aren’t that good. I like SDSU to come out fierce in a game that will say a lot about their program. They will upset the Utes.
College Football Gambling Trends
Utes are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0.
Utes are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games as a favorite.
Utes are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 conference games.
Aztecs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Aztecs are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games overall.
Aztecs are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Utes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings in San Diego State.
Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Score Prediction: San Diego State 31 – Utah 28
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