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Nevada vs. Idaho Free Week 10 Preview & Pick (Nov. 6)

NCAA Football Odds – Nevada Wolf Pack vs Idaho Vandals Free Pick & Preview

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Nevada vs Idaho Matchup

Saturday November 6 – 5:00PM
Kibbie Dome – Moscow, Idaho
Nevada (7-1) vs Idaho (4-4)
Moneyline: Nevada -450, Idaho +350
Spread Favourite: Nevada -11
Over/Under: 67
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!

Nevada

Everyone stopped talking about Nevada two weeks ago after their loss to Hawaii.  This should come as no surprise as the team had cooled a bit in advance of that game and that loss eliminated the potential showdown of undefeated teams when Boise State comes to Reno at the end of November.  I can still remember vividly backing the Wolf Pack in their upset blowout of Cal in September but as a better you should have been staying away lately – they are on an 0-4 ATS run.

The main reason for the slowing down of the Wolf Pack is the play of dynamic QB Colin Kaepernick.  The long striding QB has not been horrible but he has not been as explosive as he was early on.  In the last 5 games Special K (trademark pending) has thrown for over 200 yards only once and in only one game has he thrown for more TDs than INTs.  Additionally his running has been stymied with only a single 100 yard rushing performance in that span.  Kaepernick can be a defensive coordinator’s worst nightmare but lately he has been a bit off.

Nevada has beaten Idaho five in a row and none of them has been close.  Last year the Wolf Pack wrung up 70 points while cranking up more than 400 yards on the ground.  Special K (it is catching on right) was superb running for more than 200 yards with 4TDs – another performance like that would not shock especially with RB Vai Taua a little banged up heading into the contest.

Idaho

Don’t look know but the Idaho Vandals may have just gone from bad to mediocre…maybe.  They qualified for a bowl game last year and are only a couple of victories shy of doing it again.  Unfortunately the remainder of the schedule includes only one gimme against San Jose State.  To make it to a bowl again they are going to have to upset Boise State, Fresno State, Utah State or Nevada this week.  The odds are not in their favour.

The Vandals success begins with senior QB Nathan Enderle.  There are those who might be wondering how an NFL prospect like that wound up in Moscow, Idaho but there is no debate as to what the Vandals want to do on offense – throw.  Behind Enderle they have the fourth best passing attack in the nation averaging 335 yards per game.  But Enderle has already thrown more picks than he did all of last year and the Vandals are not a strong enough team to overcome turning the ball over.  In fact, Enderle was pulled in last week’s loss to Hawaii after a couple of costly picks.

Even if Enderle tightens things up it is going to be tough for the Vandals to keep pace with Nevada offensively.  Sure they love to pass and Nevada has struggled defending it but Nevada score so quickly and often putting a lot of pressure on their opponents.  Last year the Vandals scored 35 against Nevada but still lost by 35 points.  Idaho needs to try and slow down the pace if they want to upset the Wolf Pack.  Unfortunately they are not really equipped to do that.

The Pick: Nevada should win this one going away.  The Idaho program is improved on the whole but still too lean on defense to pull off what would be a substantial upset.

College Football Gambling Trends

Wolf Pack are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games in November.
Wolf Pack are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Wolf Pack are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games as a road favorite of 10.5 or greater.
Wolf Pack are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. win.
Vandals are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog.
Vandals are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their previous game.

Score Prediction:  Nevada 55 – Idaho 28

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About The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.


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