North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida St. Seminoles Gambling Preview + Predictions
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Week 10: North Carolina vs Florida State Preview & Pick
Date: Saturday, November 6, 2010
Venue: Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium, Tallahassee, FL
Broadcast: ABC/ESPN-GP
North Carolina Tar Heels vs Florida State Seminoles Betting Lines from Betus.com
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Florida State -19.5
Over/Under: 49
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North Carolina Tar Heels (5-3)
With all the distractions, the suspensions, the NCAA probes and so on, North Carolina deserves a round of applause for even being 5-3 right now. It does look like the trying season is starting to wear on the Tar Heels, though. Two weeks ago, Miami totally outclassed them. Last week, the Tar Heels needed 14 straight points in the fourth quarter to escape embarrassment and beat William & Mary.
As much as 2010 has been a battle, UNC has had some bright spots. T.J. Yates has been excellent more often than not, completing 66.3 per cent of his passes for 1,873 yards, 12 touchdowns and four interceptions. Johnny White has been solid in the backfield, running for 713 yards and six touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry.
North Carolina’s “D” ranks a respectable 38th in the nation – a pretty good number considering the elite defensive personnel they’ve lost to suspension or dismissal this year (in particular, Marvin Austin).
(24) Florida State Seminoles (6-2)
Ouch. Florida State’s 28-24 loss to N.C. State last week really, really stings. Especially since the Seminoles led 21-7 at halftime. And especially-especially because of the way they lost. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Seminoles were driving in the dying moments, all the way up to N.C. State’s 4-yard line, ready to score the winning touchdown. Alas, FSU quarterback Christian Ponder bounced off his running back on a fake handoff, fumbled the ball and turned it over to the Wolfpack. Oops.
You can bet Ponder will come out angry this week. He was actually pretty decent in that loss to N.C. State, throwing for a touchdown and running for two more. He also broke out against this week’s opponent, North Carolina, the last time he faced them, throwing for 395 yards and three scores.
FSU had trouble stopping Russell Wilson on the ground last week but, for the most part, the Seminoles have played good “D” this season. They rank 23rd overall, including 23rd against the run and 15th in scoring defense with just 17.6 points allowed per game.
The pick:
This is a tough game to call since these teams are somewhat similar. Both rely heavily on their quarterback for their success and both play above-average defense. While Ponder will probably make some mistakes, I like FSU over UNC in this one.
Looking back at North Carolina’s losses, it seems they can’t hang with the big boys. The three teams to beat the Tar Heels – and the only three teams to score 30 or more points against them – are LSU, Georgia Tech and Miami. In those three defeats, UNC allowed an average of 253 rushing yards.
Florida State has three players with at least 400 rushing yards and that doesn’t even include Ponder, who can make plays with his feet once in a while. Look for FSU’s running game to make the difference in this one. But I’m not so sure the Seminoles will cover the 10.5 points in their win.
North Carolina vs Florida State prediction: Florida State 30, North Carolina 24
Money Line: OFF
Spread: North Carolina +10.5
Over/Under: OVER 49
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