NCAA Football Odds – Southern Methodist Mustangs vs Texas-El Paso Miners Free Pick & Preview
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SMU vs UTEP
Saturday November 6 – 9:05PM
Sun Bowl Stadium – El Paso, Texas
SMU (5-4) vs UTEP (5-4)
Moneyline: SMU -250, UTEP +210
Spread Favourite: SMU -6.5
Over/Under: 54.5
(Odds courtesy of BetUS) – BET NOW!!!
SMU
The Mustangs haven’t quite taken the next step as was anticipated this season. Their four losses are to the four best teams they have played but I think that coach June Jones and others were expecting they might take one of those games this year. Their loss to Houston especially hurts as it puts them behind the eight ball in their division. Both teams are 4-1 but Houston owns the tiebreaker unless they falter.
It is surprising that SMU is not having more success as they have improved their rushing attack by 30 yards per game while sacrificing none of their passing offense. The emergence of Zack Line has made a huge difference in terms of balancing the attack but it hasn’t increased the Mustangs points on the scoreboard which is down a FG from last season – and it is not because they are facing stellar defense each week. They just aren’t converting as many drives as they should given their ability to move the ball.
SMU snapped a streak of three straight wins by the Miners last season. Still SMU is 0-3 ATS over that recent stretch. Usually when these two get together there are plenty of points to go around. In each of the last three seasons the total has been above 60 and this one seems a little low to me at 54.5. Both of these teams have a shot to win it so the over might be the safest play as opposed to figuring out who will win. 
UTEP
The Miners are really slumping right now. They began the season 5-1 but have lost three in a row to the weaker teams in the conference with the most disappointing being their road loss to a hapless Marshall team last week. With 5 wins so early a bowl season should have been a given but looking at their schedule it seems almost assured that is not going to happen this season and coach Mike Price may be on notice as a result.
There is no real explanation for why Trevor Vittatoe continues to regress. His yards per attempt is way down this year and he just doesn’t look comfortable. If this were a pro team people would be talking about how a trade would do him some good but the Miners are stuck with him, especially if they want to capture that elusive 6th victory. He isn’t horrible but a 4th year starter should do better or have been replaced already.
The Miners have won their last three at home against the Mustangs. Their only home loss this season was an ugly one to Tulane two weeks ago and they need to get back on track this weekend to qualify for a bowl. That might be too tall an order for a team that consistently disappoints. When the offense is clicking they can hang with the best in the conference but they have been miserable in C-USA games this year (2-4).
The Pick: SMU should be able to jump all over a Miner squad that is reeling and without leadership. Covering the spread should be relatively easy unless they coast too much in the second half.
College Football Gambling Trends
Mustangs are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
Mustangs are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games as a road favorite of 3.5-10.0.
Miners are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games as a home underdog of 3.5-10.0.
Miners are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Mustangs are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 meetings.
Underdog is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings.
Score Prediction: SMU 38 – UTEP 21
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