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Baylor Bears vs. OSU Cowboys Week 10 Free Pick

Baylor vs Oklahoma State Gambling Preview + Predictions

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No. 21 Baylor Bears vs. No. 17 Oklahoma St. Cowboys CFB Lines

Date/Time: 12:30 PM ET, November 6, 20
Venue: Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater OK
Broadcast: None
No. 21 Baylor Bears vs. No. 17 Oklahoma State Cowboys Betting Lines from JustBet.com
Money Line: Baylor (+190) OSU (-230)
Spread: Oklahoma State -7.5
Over/Under: 73
Bet Now at JustBet.com —>

No. 21 Baylor Bears vs. No. 17 OSU Cowboys Preview

In a HUGE Big 12 match up this Saturday where the winner will be in 1st place in the South Division the 17th ranked Oklahoma State Cowboys (7-1) host the 21st ranked Baylor Bears (7-2). College football lines have Oklahoma State as 7.5-point favorites in this game with a high total of 73.

OSU has owned Baylor since they joined the Big 12, as they have won their last 4 against the Bears, out-scoring them 179-51 in that span, and won 12 of their last 13 games against them. However, this is a much different Baylor team with dynamic QB Robert Griffin III and no matter how the season ends they are already bowl eligible and already have their first winning season since joining the Big 12.

The winner of this game will be in a good position to win the Big 12 South and play in the conference title game, but each still has to face 8th ranked Oklahoma, who also only has one loss in the South division.

It is not hard to see why the total for this game is 73, as each team has a great offense. Baylor ranks 10th in the nation in passing yards per game and OSU ranks 3rd and is also the 3rd highest scoring team in the country.  Not only that, but the Cowboys will get WR Justin Blackmon back for this game after sitting out last game because of a suspension. Blackmon leads the nation in receiving yards per game. Oh yeah, one more reason the total is so high? Baylor has the nation’s 78th ranked defense and Oklahoma State only ranks 86th AND the Cowboys have one of the worst pass defenses in the nation.

Heading into this Big 12 showdown Baylor is 5-4 ATS and OSU is 6-2 ATS.

In their last games Baylor beat Texas 30-22 and Oklahoma State had a sluggish start, but finished strong in beating Kansas State 24-14.

QB Brandon Weeden ranks 3rd in the nation in passing yards per game and last week against Kansas State he passed for 298 yards and 2 TD. He has his main target back in Blackmon and he does not have to do it all in the air. Why? Well, RB Kendall Hunter leads the Big 12 in rushing yards and ranks 3rd in the nation averaging 146.75 yards per game.

Hunter rushed for 143 yards last week and he will be facing a Baylor run defense that ranks 63rd in the nation. In Baylor’s win over Texas their defense did not play well giving up 428 yards (257 passing yards 171 rushing yards), but they did come up big forcing a fumble late in the game that sealed their win. Don’t count on the Bears keeping the high-scoring Cowboys from lighting up the scoreboard, as in Baylor’s last 4 games they have given up an average of 33.5 points per game.

You would think Baylor would be in trouble with their defense and the offense that OSU has, but Baylor can light up the scoreboard as well and they will have to in this game. Griffin is not only a huge threat with his arm, but with his legs as well, as he is the Bears 2nd leading rusher. However, he may go to the aerial attack early and often in this game since the Oklahoma State pass defense ranks 113th in the nation out of 120 FBS teams.

Like the Cowboys the Bears have a legit ground game led by RB Jay Finley, who has averaged almost 170 rushing yards in the last 3 games averaging over 9 yards per carry. Last week he faced a Texas rushing defense that ranks 28th in the nation and he still had 116 rushing yards on 7.7 yards per carry. This week he faces the “strength” of the OSU defense in their run defense that ranks 43rd.

Don’t look for a lot, or maybe any, defensive stops in this game and while Baylor is having a great season OSU simply has too many weapons on offense and they are at home where they will not be denied. I said it before that this is a different Baylor team, but they are 0-4 ATS in the last 4 games against the Cowboys and 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games at Oklahoma State. These trends will continue, as this game will not be a blowout, but the Cowboys will win this game and cover the spread.

Do I even need to tell you to take the Over? Sure, 73 is a very high total, but all the trends point to the Over and that is also the pick in this game.

Pick: Oklahoma State -7.5 and the Over

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Jason Green is back with Cappers Picks again to give out his free sports plays. As always he's hoping the Braves and Redskins can win a championship since their last one in the 90’s was long ago. He’s starting to know the pain of Cubs fans.