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Week 1: North Texas vs Clemson Preview & Pick

On Monday September 6th its the North Texas Mean Green vs. Clemson Tigers. Odds currently have the Tigers listed as 27-point favorites , the game’s total is sitting at 56. Here is a preview, free pick plus the college football betting angle.

North Texas Mean Green vs Clemson Tigers Gambling Preview + Predictions

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Date/Time: Saturday, September 4, 3:30 p.m. ET
Venue: Memorial Stadium
North Texas vs Clemson Lines
Moneyline: Mean Green vs Tigers OFF
CFB betting favorite: Clemson -27
Over/Under: 56
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North Texas Mean Green

North Texas has been a laughing stock even in the Sun Belt conference of late; the Mean Green went just 2-10 overall last year and 1-7 in their own conference. However, they’re expected to improve dramatically this year.

Offensively, North Texas is a bit of a mystery. They’re actually pretty decent at running back and receiver. Lance Dunbar compiled 1,300-plus rushing yards and scored 17 times last year. The Mean Green also have six different guys returning that caught at least 20 passes last year.

The problem: who will get them the ball? Starting quarterback Riley Dodge is out with a shoulder injury. That means Jeff Tune should get the nod this weekend under center (though sophomore Derrick Thompson will compete for the job too).

Defensively, North Texas was a nightmare in 2009, allowing 412.3 total yards and 35.6 points per game. But this unit returns eight starters and should improve by experience alone.

Clemson Tigers

There are mixed signals coming from Clemson land about the 2010 team forecast. On one hand, this team lost its most dynamic offensive player, C.J. Spiller, to the Buffalo Bills in round one of the NFL draft. At the same time, Clemson won the ACC Atlantic and reached the conference title game last year; they’ll hope to build on that performance with or without Spiller. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Retaining Kyle Parker, who may people thought would leave after getting an offer to play baseball with the Colorado Rockies, was a coup for Clemson. After losing Spiller, the ACC’s all-time leader in all-purpose yardage, the Tigers will need the passing game to do more.

We think. Then again, Clemson does return four starters to its offensive line. Spiller was the man but any team that amasses 170 rushing yards per game has more than one part doing its job. Maybe Andre Ellington and/or Jamie Harper will step up?

Clemson’s defense is in pretty good shape; it allowed 20.4 points per game last year, 20th-best in the country. The Tigers have a great secondary and defensive line. There’s no reason to believe they won’t play stout defense again this year.

North Texas at Clemson Gambling Trends:

North Texas is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games
North Texas is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Clemson’s last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of North Texas’s last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 8 of North Texas’s last 11 games
Clemson is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home
Clemson is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

The pick:

A 27-point margin at home shouldn’t be a problem for Clemson, which is 8-3 against the spread in its last 11 home games. North Texas will improve – but not in Week 1. It should have major trouble stopping Clemson and its developmental passing game will struggle mightily too. Expect a humiliating loss for the Mean Green.

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North Texas vs Clemson prediction: Clemson 45, North Texas 6