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TCU vs. Baylor Free Week 1 Preview & Pick (Sept. 2)

The TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears will both be trying to pick up a win in Week 1 on Friday when they battle at Floyd Casey Stadium. Odds have Horned Frogs listed as 6½-point favorites the game’s total is 55.5…

Bet On College Football – TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears Gambling Preview

By now people should know all about the TCU Horned Frogs – no more sneaking up on teams.  Yes, they won the Rose Bowl in January.  Yes, they are moving to the Big East…and yes All-Everything QB Andy Dalton has graduated.  

TCU Horned Frogs vs Baylor Bears
Floyd Casey Stadium- Waco, Texas
Friday September 2 – 7:00PM
Moneyline:  TCU -255, Baylor +195
Spread (ATS):  TCU -6.5
Over/Under: 55.5
Odds courtesy of 5Dimes

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TCU

Is this the end of TCU’s run among the elite teams in the nation? NO…definitely not.

Friday night will mark the beginning of the Casey Paschall era at TCU.  Truth be told he was a much more highly touted high schooler than the aforementioned Dalton and is probably a better overall athlete and thrower.  He is essentially untested but definitely has help on offense with the return of last year’s top three rushers and top receiver – Josh Boyce.  

Plus the Frogs are improving the quality of their recruiting classes as evidenced by the get of WR LaDarious Brown who was ranked #12 in the nation at his position.  Paschall is unlikely to be as successful as Dalton (who could be) but this team should have no trouble scoring points.

The key to TCU’s success of course is the defense (6 straight seasons under 19ppg allowed).  I am very confident that coach Gary Patterson will be able to take the five returning starters from last year, including the best pair of linebackers in the country, and mold a top 5 defense that can win games on its own if need be.  

Patterson is a great defensive mind and coach who will have the Frogs ready to begin another season long assault on the BCS.  This is a very big game against a relatively familiar opponent.

Baylor

The Baylor Bears have been a bit snakebit lately. They have had a lot of talent come through Waco lately – including QB Robert Griffin – but still can’t seem to break through the 7-5 barrier.

Last year looked like it might be a tipping point when a win over Texas vaulted them to #22 in the rankings but three straight double digit losses thereafter demonstrated that this team is still stuck in the middle, or worse, in the now reformed Big 12.

As superlative a talent as Griffin is, what has been learned over his tenure is that he can not do it alone.  Griffin is the leading returning rusher so they will be looking to establish a ground game with some players who are not used to getting a lot of carries.    [soliloquy id=”82219″]

The strongest position group on the team was supposed to be receiver but their best deep threat, Josh Gordon, left the team in August.  Kendall Wright may be dependable and has all conference ability but Gordon was the receiver defense feared and replacing him won’t be easy.  

He was one of the few difference makers on the team, capable of making a play against the highest levels of competition.

The defense will have lots of new faces this season with the top 5 tacklers gone from a year ago.  Only 5 starters return from a group that gave up more than 30ppg last season and needs to improve to give the offense a chance.  To beat the Frogs they will need Defensive End Tevin Elliot, the team’s leading sacker last year to make things uncomfortable for Paschall.  

I don’t really see that or a Baylor upset happening.  Baylor has lost to TCU every time since they used to be in the Southwest Conference together.  

None have been all that close, in fact the margins are getting bigger.

Trends:

Under is 6-1-1 in TCU last 8 vs. Big 12.
TCU are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. Big 12.
Over is 7-2 in BAY last 9 games overall.

ATS Pick:  TCU -6.5
Over/Under Pick: Over 55.5
Score Prediction:  TCU 38 – Baylor 20

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By The Wiesguy

The Wiesguy is a newcomer to the handicapping scene. Hailing from Toronto, Canada he is always sweet on the underdogs and you can often find his thoughts, musings and picks at moneydogs.blogspot.com.