Week 1: Southern Mississippi vs South Carolina Preview & Pick

Southern Mississippi vs South Carolina Gambling Preview + Predictions

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Date/Time: Thursday September 2 – 7:30PM
Venue: Williams-Brice Stadium
Southern Mississippi  (0-0) vs. South Carolina (0-0) Lines
MoneyLine: Gamecocks vs Golden Eagles NO Money Lines Yet
CFB betting favorite: Gamecocks -14
Over/Under: 47.5
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Southern Miss

The Southern Miss Golden Eagles enter the season off of three straight 7-6 campaigns.  They have enough talent to challenge in the East division of Conference USA and when I look at their schedule this could definitely be a team that surprises both in the conference and maybe even on a national scale.

Coach Larry Fedora has picked up where former HC Jeff Bower left off.  Southern Miss is never an easy out.

Southern Miss returns 13 starters this year, including QB Austin Davis.  Davis will look to air it out to DeAndre Brown who has as much pro potential as anyone else on the field for either team.  He is a gigantic target and if South Carolina can not figure out how to cover him Southern Miss will be sure to exploit the matchup.

On the defensive side of the ball Southern Miss has nine starters from a defense that gave up 25.8ppg last year, not stellar but better than average especially considering the conference they are in.  This unit should be improved and keep them in most games all season – including this one.

It may be silly to say so early but this is a statement game for the Golden Eagles.  They have been passed over by a few teams in the C-USA pecking order lately but a solid performance, especially a win, over an SEC team would strongly indicate that they are to be reckoned with in the conference.

The Gamecocks are a very unpredictable team with a combustble quarterback so this game presents a fantastic opportunity for Souther Miss to make a little noise.  In 2000 this team shutout Alabama 21-0.  A shocking result given the current state but a victory for USM in this one would not be such a shocker.

South Carolina

It may seem like it was yesterday but Steve Spurrier is opening his sixth season as the coach at South Carolina.  In that time the best he has been able to coax out of the Gamecocks is eight wins and that was back in 2006.

Some think this might be the year they contend for the SEC East division as Florida reshuffles but to me it looks like more of the same even though this teams is littered with talent throughout the lineup.  You hate to pick on the Ol’ Ball Coach but he is just not getting it done down in Columbia.

When he was at Florida Spurrier loved tossing the ball around but since he came to SC he has been forced to go with a more balanced attack – they have been  equally mediocre in both running and passing the ball.

Last year they were 12th in the SEC in rushing averaging only 120 yards per game.  This year they have one of the highest rated recruits in the nation, Marcus Lattimore, coming in.

If he has the kind of freshman impact of say, Adrian Peterson, to whom he has been compared, the Gamecocks may finally be able to have the kind of running game to take the pressure off of embattled QB Stephen Garcia.

The key to South Carolina’s season and anyone game like this one is QB play.  Garcia is frequently criticized by everyone, including the coach, and there is some heat on him from frosh Connor Shaw.  With better depth than they have had recently at the position Spurrier will not hesitate to pull Garcia if he has a few bad series.

The key for him has always been consistency.  He never seems to have an average game, just good ones and bad ones.  It’s not Florida or Alabama but Southern MIss will be a good opening test as opposed to Furman in a couple of weeks.

Although the recent suspension of TE Weslye Saunders (who has next level talent) will not help matters at all.

The Pick:

I have to admit that I usually favour the underdog and I like Southern Miss in this one.  A couple of TDs seems a bit much for an unpredictable squad like South Carolina against a pretty good team.

If this jumps over 14 points leading up to game time than I am even more psyched.

College Football Gambling Trends

SMISS is 14-8 ATS as a dog of 10.5 – 21 points since 1993
SMISS is 9-3 as a road underdog of 10.5 – 14 points since 1993
SMISS is 14-14 ATS vs. SEC opponents since 1993
SCAR is 3-1 ATS as a favourite of 10.5 – 21 points the last three seasons
SCAR is 3-2 ATS against C-USA opponents over the last three seasons
SCAR is 4-2 ATS in September the last three seasons

Southern Miss vs. South Carolina Score Prediction: South Carolina – 27 vs. Southern Miss – 24

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