Fighting Irish vs Trojans NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
When the 2012 college football season began, this game was looked at as one of the final steps for a USC Trojans squad that would surely be in the mix for a BCS National Championship. Well, the tides have turned, as it’s the Notre Dame Fighting Irish that bring in an undefeated ranking and the first-overall ranking in the NCAA.
No. 1 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-0) vs USC Trojans (7-4)
Saturday November 24, 2012
Los Angeles Coliseum, LOS ANGELES, CALIF.
8:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Notre Dame -210, USC +180 from WagerWeb
Spread: Notre Dame -5.5
O/U: 46
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Notre Dame controls their own destiny, and with a win against the Trojans this weekend, they’ll all but lock up a spot in the title game.
Notre Dame Fighting Irish
It took an entire season, and some serious help from their fallen opponents, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish are officially the No. 1 team in all of college football.
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They are seemingly one game away from a BCS championship, and they are facing a short-handed USC team in Los Angeles.
The anchor of this team is defense. They’ve allowed just 10.1 points per game on the season, which is good enough for first in the country, and they allow just 287.4 yards per game, which is good enough for sixth. Through the air, the Fighting Irish have been a top-25 team this season, but it’s their stellar run defense that will test an inexperienced quarterback. With Matt Barkley out, the Trojans are going to look to run, and Notre Dame’s front line will be ready to swallow up Silas Redd from start to finish.
On offense, the team will look to utilize senior running back Cierre Wood. He is coming off a great performance (150 YRDS, 11 CAR, 1 TD) and he has a career average of 5.5 yards per carry. It’s alarming how different USC’s run defense has looked in wins and losses. In wins, USC is holding their opponents to 90.6 yards per game on the ground. In losses, they’re conceding 254 yards in the running game. If Notre Dame can take advantage in that area, they’ll be in good shape come Saturday.
USC Trojans
The USC Trojans have disappointed this season to say the least. When the year began, it was them—not Notre Dame—that was supposed to be in position for a BCS title. Four losses later, the team is looking to simply end the season on a high note, which is going to be a tough thing to do sans Matt Barkley. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The team’s senior quarterback is out with a sprained shoulder, which means redshirt freshman Max Wittek will get the nod. Wittek predicted a USC victory heading into this contest, which is a bold claim considering he has a grand total of nine passes on his career. We know he has two of the biggest weapons in college football on his side in wideouts Marquis Lee and Robert Woods, but we don’t know exactly what to expect from such an inexperienced quarterback.
Running back Silas Redd is going to be a huge part of the Trojans’ attack, as his success is going to determine just how much Wittek has to do. If Redd can play the game of his life against a Notre Dame defense that has stopped running backs all season, the team will have a chance to outscore a Fighting Irish team that is averaging just 27.2 points per game.
USC has home-field advantage in this one, but you have to wonder how much that will help a young quarterback against an elite defense. The Fighting Irish have more to play for at this juncture, and their defense should come out strong. Notre Dame should finish off the Trojans in this one, and they should land themselves in the BCS National Championship game as a result of an undefeated season.
Trends
Under is 4-1 in the last 5 head-to-head meetings.
Under is 6-1 in Trojans last 7 home games.
Under is 5-1 in Trojans last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Under is 6-0-1 in Fighting Irish last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Under is 7-1-1 in Fighting Irish last 9 road games.
Under is 7-1 in Fighting Irish last 8 games following a ATS win.
O/U Pick: Under 46
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 20 – USC 14
