Navy Midshipmen (2-5) vs. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-3)
Notre Dame Stadium, South Bend IN
Saturday, October 29, 3:30 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: OFF
Spread: Navy +21.5, Notre Dame -21.5
Over/Under: 62
This traditional match-up against Independent teams pits two squads against each other with wildly different offensive strategies.
The Midshipmen are built on the ground game; Navy is third in the nation in rush yards per game (just over 325 yards per contest) while sitting 117th in the FBS in passing. The Middies run an option offense that puts heavy emphasis on ball possession and moving the chains.
The Irish, meanwhile, are aerial specialists. They like getting their production through the passing game with excellent targets like WR Michael Floyd and TE Tyler Eifert. The well-oiled attack seized up somewhat last week versus Southern Cal, however, the Irish lost 31-17 to USC in a game where they looked largely uninspired. The Golden Domers need to rebound nicely to get the momentum on track – Navy looks like the perfect opponent to accomplish this end.
Navy is still more vulnerable because of starting QB Kriss Proctor’s hand injury in last week’s 38-35 loss to East Carolina. Trey Miller should start in place of Proctor this week, there will absolutely be a drop-off because Proctor is leading the team in rushing (591 yards, eight TDs) to go along with six passing majors. During this time of year when seemingly every team is battling the injury bug, the Middies will also miss LB Matt Brewer (neck stinger), CB David Wright (foot) and RB Aaron Santiago (arm). Navy doesn’t need top-line recruits to run its gameplan, but the injuries will doubtlessly test a team that does not have great depth to begin with.
Notre Dame needs to get a sustained effort from its players right from the opening whistle, because if the Irish play like they are capable of, the passing game will shred Navy’s secondary. Unlike the past couple seasons, the Irish are also getting a nice contribution from the running back position; junior Cierre Wood and senior Jonas Gray have combined for 1,100 yards and 11 TDs. The Irish “D” is coming off consecutive games where they surrendered 33 points to Air Force and 31 to USC, so they must smarten up against a pesky option attack. Notre Dame is dealing with two key injuries at the defensive end spot – starters Ethan Johnson is “Questionable” with an injured ankle and Kapron Lewis-Moore is out for the year with a knee. As the defensive line is crucial to stopping the run game, new faces must step up this week. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Irish signal-caller Tommy Rees hyper-extended his knee against the Trojans last week, but he was able to return to the game and should be ready to go this Saturday. Rees is in the school’s record books for going the third-longest streak of passes without an interception (135 pass attempts) so, while the streak was snapped when Rees threw a pick last week, he’s obviously been playing within himself. Notre Dame has everyone else healthy on offense to utilize, so Navy’s 83rd-ranked defensive unit will likely feel the wrath of Rees, Floyd, Wood and Co. (that sounds like a company that should be selling nappy sweaters to tourists in Maine).
Irish head coach Brian Kelly and his men should be frustrated after their lackluster showing against rival USC, so they ought to come out with an eye to steamroll the Middies. If the team uses the Southern Cal shortcomings as fuel to play with an edge this week at home, the Golden Domers should win by multiple scores against the banged-up visitors from the Naval Academy.
Score Prediction: Notre Dame 38, Navy 12
Over/Under Prediction: 50
