Southern Methodist vs Texas A+M Free Week 1 College Football Pick + Betting Preview
This is an interesting game not only because each has bowl aspirations and plays in the Lone Star State, but Texas A&M has stated they plan to leave the Big 12 for the SEC, if they accept them, and SMU has already campaigned publicly that they would like to join the Big 12 if the Aggies depart.
Venue | Stadium: Kyle Field, COLLEGE STATION, TX
Time/Date: 7:30 PM ET, Sunday September 4, 2011
NCAA Odds From: Pinnacle
Moneyline: OFF
Spread (ATS): Texas -23
Over/Under: 55
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SMU Mustangs vs. No. 8 Texas A&M Aggies Preview
CFL lines have Texas A&M as big 23-point favorites in this game with a total of 55.
The last time these teams met was in 2005 when the Aggies crushed the Mustangs 66-8.
The Aggies are a senior led team that is ranked in the top 25 for the first time since 1999 and they have a Heisman darkhorse candidate in QB Ryan Tannehill. Last season he had a great WR corps and all the guys are back including Jeff Fuller (72 rec 1,066 yards 12 TD) and Nate Askew, who are both 6’4″ and will cause the SMU secondary big match up problems. Speaking off the SMU pass defense they ranked 3rd in conference USA an allowed the fewest TD passes.
SMU has a solid run defense with many returning players, but they will have their hands full in this game facing the Texas A&M RB duo of Cyrus Gray and Christine Michael, who combined for nearly 1,700 yards last season.
One key in this game is the Aggies’ offensive line, as while they do return 4 starters the unit ranked 104th in the nation and 11th in the Big 12 in sacks allowed they have to keep the solid LB unit of SMU off Tannehill and give him time in the pocket. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Mustangs feature a run and shoot offense and they have a legit QB under center in Kyle Padron, who last season ranked 8th in the nation with 3,828 passing yards and 31 TD.
SMU uses a 4-wideout set that passes first and will test the Texas A&M secondary that has everyone back and ranked 26th in pass efficiency defense in 2010. SMU WR’s Darius Johnson and Cole Beasley combined for over 160 catches and just over 1,900 yards last season and if A&M can contain these 2 they will be in good shape.
SMU RB Zach Line rushed for 1,494 yards last season and the Aggies have to keep him from having a big game even though their D will be concentrating on containing the passing attack. Even with Von Miller gone the Aggies are HUGE up front and will likely be solid against the run.
Betting Trends
SMU is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a road underdog of 10.5 or more and has an Under record in 5 of their last 6 games.
Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games, and has an Under record of 5-1 in their last 6 home games.
The Mustangs will not win this game, but they will keep it close and with the offense they have they will not be blown out and they will cover the big spread.
Pick: SMU +23 and the Over
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