Memphis Tigers and East Carolina Pirates
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Saturday September 11 – 12:00PM
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium, Greenville, North Carolina
Memphis (0-1) vs East Carolina (1-0)
Moneyline: Memphis -465, Memphis +365
Spread Favourite: ECU-13
Over/Under: 58
(Odds courtesy of BetUS)
Memphis
The Memphis Tigers are not a very good football team and after a three year slide they decided to go in a different direction with Larry Porter at the helm. This is Porter’s alma mater and he had been on the staff at LSU previously so he knows a thing or too about winning. He was very familiar with their oppening opponent, SEC West team Mississippi State, not that it mattered. The Bulldogs throttled Memphis an indication of their rise and the Tigers ineptitude.
In my opinion it is never good to not have a clear cut starter at QB. In last week’s loss the Tigers split attempts between Miami tranfer Cannon Smith (great name) and true frosh Ryan Williams. Smith was by far the better of the two with more yards, a better completion percentage, a TD and no picks. Williams threw a couple of picks and this team can not afford to lose the TO battle. Last year they were negative in that column in all but 2 games. Their record in those games 1-1 in all others 1-9. They just don’t have enough talent to overcome mistakes so look for Smith to start this weekend.
On the road for their conference opener is not a good situation for the Tigers. They have struggled against East Carolina of late, losing 4 straight by an average of 17ppg. They have been the underdog in all four contests with an average spread of +5. This weekend it is more than double that, another indicator of the gap between Memphis and the rest of Conference USA.
East Carolina
The Pirates might have been the best story from week 1. With a new coach and a new offense they were decided underdogs against Tulsa at home. In a barn burner of game they were able to score a TD with seconds left to grab the victory. Their defense might have been a sieve against Tulsa but it looks like Dominique Davis can be a very good spread QB for the Pirates and coach Ruffin McNeil. 
Many thought this team might be sub .500 but they just might be a player in C-USA this season.
The Pirates put up 51 points last week, more than they scored in any game last season. Ditto for the 399 passing yards, in fact they didn’t throw for more than 300 yards any game last year either. They also ran for 180 yards too for a monster offensive performance. This is not what we are used to seeing from ECU but with Memphis on the docket there is no reason to expect an offensive slowdown this week. They may not need as many points but since they are still growing in this offense I think they are likely to keep their foot on the gas in this one.
The offense was impressive but the defense was not. Last week I mentioned that the D had only two returning starters and it showed. You have to think that McNeil will tighten it up over time although his defenses at Texas Tech were more bend don’t break than dominant. Either way this is a week where the defense should look much better. Memphis is still trying to find a QB and the Pirates did cause a couple of TOs against Tulsa. The Pirates should win easily and will sit atop their division at 2-0.
The Pick: I am still surprised how well the Pirates offense showed last week. Tulsa isn’t exactly a defensive power but they are better than Memphis so there is no reason to think the show won’t continue. ECU should cover easily. We might have gotten a break here because oddsmakers are still envisioning the old ECU.
College Football Gambling Trends
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. loss.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS loss.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Tigers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
Pirates are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Pirates are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Pirates are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 conference games.
Score Prediction: East Carolina 45 – Memphis 19
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