Idaho at Nevada
10/24/09: 4:05 PM EST
Line: Nevada – 15 1/2
Records – Idaho: 6-1 SU, 7-0 ATS
Nevada: 3-3 SU, 2-4 ATS
Mitch’s Free Pick Against The Spread College Football
It’s a potential fireworks show in the WAC as the upstart Idaho Vandals go on the road to take on the Nevada Wolfpack.
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Nevada appears to have righted the ship after a horrible start to the season where they were shut out at Notre Dame and then followed that up with two more losses. Nevada has now won three in a row and it’s the same Nevada team we have enjoyed watching for a few years now. Colin Kaepernick running the pistol offense with himself carrying the ball as well as handing it off to Via Tua and just putting on dazzling displays with one of the nations best ground attacks. Statistically the Wolfpack are the number one rushing team in the country but they still have the same issues on defense that have been plaguing them for seemingly years now. Nevada is 113th against the past and 96th in total yards allowed and allowing nearly 29 points a game which ranks them 90th.
Idaho may be the single most surprising team in college football this year. The Vandals are bowl eligible, something they haven’t accomplished in quite some time. Idaho has reeled off six straight wins and is simply on a roll, playing with confidence. The Vandals have been an underdog in every game this season except one and have covered all seven times out.
They get it done with a balanced effort on both sides of the ball but on offense, they lean towards the pass, something they have proved to be more efficient at. On defense, Idaho is 11th in the country against the run allowing an average of just 85 yards per game.
Nevada is 11-2 against the spread in their last 13 games where they have been favored by 10 1/2 or more but they are 2-7 against the spread in their last nine overall and 0-5 against the spread when playing a team with a winning record.
Idaho has covered in 10 of their last 11 games overall, are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven conference games, and their last six as an underdog.
Nevada has improved their record but by playing a soft spot in their schedule and the way Idaho is playing it will be another step up in competition.
Idaho’s tough run defense matches up well against Nevada’s run oriented offense and Idaho’s passing offense matches up well against Nevada’s poor pass defense.
I think the public is still hesitant to jump aboard the Idaho bandwagon which continues to give us opportunities to get great value.
Mitch’s Pick: Idaho + 15 1/2
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