Breaking Down Huge College Football Spreads
Last week’s USC-Washington State matchup was one for the history books. The Trojans were 42.5-point away favorites, the highest spread USC has faced on the road since Pete Carroll took over the program. That was enough chalk to send bettors scurrying to Washington State’s side.
Whoops. The Trojans won 69-0, improving to 5-1 SU and a healthy 4-2 ATS. But dealing with giant chalk is old hat for USC. This team has been favored by double-digits in every game this season. They don’t always cover – in fact, the Trojans have suffered some high-profile losses over the past couple of years to Stanford (+39) and Oregon State (+24). But USC gets the job done more often than not at 20-12 ATS in the Carroll Era when favored by at least 20 points.
These massive spreads are becoming more and more common. There was only one such occurrence in Carroll’s first two years at the helm, then six in 2003 as the program won the first of two back-to-back national championships. But the Trojans aren’t the only team finding itself laying three touchdowns or more on a regular basis. The Texas Longhorns are 7-0 SU and ATS this year; their first four games were all blowouts with no spread lower than 23. Penn State just beat Michigan (+24.5) by a 46-17 score.
These mismatches are great value opportunities for chalkeaters. Handicapping becomes less of an exact science the higher the spread gets. Casual bettors flee from these situations, or worse, take the underdog and the points. Some underdogs are better than others, of course, but simply hammering every team at –20 or higher would have earned you big bucks this year at 49-34-2 ATS.
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The higher the chalk gets, the more risk-averse bettors become. There are even many sharps who will avoid going too far into the deep end, preferring to sift carefully through the underdogs for value. However, it is exactly this risk aversion that makes the market so soft at the extreme. The books have to put a lid on the chalk at some point just to get people to support the favorite. 
And while laying 42.5 points to Washington State may appear risky, it’s actually a lot safer than being a small fave against a competitive team, which the Cougars most certainly are not.
The best time to use this strategy is during the opening three weeks, when most of the alpha males in the FBS are playing “cupcake” opponents in non-conference action. Many of these games won’t even have a betting line because the opponent in question is from the FCS, the former Division I-AA. But there are plenty of FCS-quality teams in the lower conferences. Arizona (-26.5) got to play the lowly Idaho Vandals from the WAC in the season opener and crushed them 70-0. In all, teams laying 20 points or more went 22-12-2 ATS through the first three weeks of the 2008 campaign.
It’s been a yo-yo ride since then, although the –20 Crew remains 27-22 ATS over the past five weeks. Markets tend to tighten as more and more football gets played and the public gets a better handle on how good these teams actually are. As well, you’ll find more occasions (especially in early conference play) where the underdog will play with a lot more passion than during the non-con portion of the schedule. Motivation is a powerful force, and the athletes we’re dealing with are teenagers fighting for school and personal pride. Weeding out these scenarios ahead of time will help keep your investment in chalk from turning sour.
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