#15 South Carolina Gamecocks (5-1, 3-1 SEC) vs Mississippi State Bulldogs (3-3, 0-3 SEC)
The never-ending saga of Gamecocks quarterback Stephen Garcia finally came to (what should be) a decisive halt this week, as he was dismissed from the team.
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville MS
Saturday, Oct. 15, Noon EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: South Carolina -147, Miss. St. +121
Spread: South Carolina -2, Miss. St. +2
Over/Under: 48.5
Garcia violated the conditions of his re-instatement for the umpteenth time; coach Steve Spurrier had already relegated the troubled, inconsistent talent to the backup role in favor of sophomore Connor Shaw. Well, Shaw has no further distractions between him and the top spot. From here on out, it is up to him to make sweet music with the other talented pieces of the Carolina offense.
As far as Mississippi State is concerned, a home win over Shaw and the visiting Gamecocks would at least get its season moving in somewhat of a positive direction. The Bulldogs have underachieved thus far; many pigskin experts had high hopes for MSU in 2011, but they are winless this season in conference play. The Bulldogs lost a tough game to Auburn earlier in the season and then have dropped contests to an excellent LSU team and a good Georgia side. A win over ranked (and perhaps overhyped) South Carolina would at least give the Starkville fans some validation that they have a decent football team.
If MSU is to pull the upset, it must happen on the ground offensively. State is averaging almost 190 rush yards per game; Bulldogs QB Chris Relf has some mobility (though he isn’t putting up the rushing stats of last year) and one of the best running backs in the conference resides in Starkville, in the person of senior Vick Ballard. Mississippi State’s passing game has been just OK, not as good as hoped in the pre-season. The Bulldogs should be able to make some gains up against the streaky Gamecocks’ defense, but Ballard must have a strong performance.
With Garcia’s dismissal, Spurrier and his team are really leaning on Shaw under center. He started his career with a bang as a freshman, but last week against Kentucky was Shaw’s first good showing in 2011; it seems like any team can embarrass Kentucky lately. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
This will be a good litmus test for the SC brass in gauging Shaw, though if he doesn’t play well, it’s not like Carolina has a ton of options. All the depth behind Shaw has never played college football before. It is a good thing that RB Marcus Lattimore and WR Alshon Jeffery can carry the offense.
Two players in the SC offensive tackle rotation are also questionable for this weekend, Kyle Nunn has a back injury and Rokevious Watkins is still battling concussion trouble. With that attrition, Shaw may be looking over his shoulder often – it is a good thing he has plenty of mobility.
Every game is vital in the conference schedule, but this game is especially important to both teams, for different reasons. The Gamecocks are scrambling to remain in the upper echelon of the SEC East division, especially given the controversy that’s been swirling about the Garcia fiasco. The ’Dogs, then, need this home game to glean any kind of positivity from the 2011 regular season, particularly given the confident pre-season outlook. MSU has played itself out of contention in the cutthroat SEC West, but a victory against ranked South Carolina could do much to introduce some momentum to the talented Bulldogs team.
However, if Carolina can play as thoroughly as it did last week versus Kentucky (a crushing 54-3 victory) the Gamecocks should keep their winning ways going. Considering Shaw had to sit behind Garcia for so long, the chip on his shoulder should be massive, and he should continue to show that he deserves this starting job in Columbia. Look for Carolina to take a narrow win back to the Palmetto State.
Score Prediction: South Carolina 21, Mississippi State 19
Over/Under Prediction: 40
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