Air Force Falcons (2-1) at Navy Midshipmen (2-1)
In a battle of two of America’s service academies, the beginning, middle and end of the story is a battle of two juggernaut running games. The Air Force Falcons are ranked #1 in the nation in rushing, with an astounding 411.7 ypg average.
Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium, Annapolis MD
Saturday, Oct. 1, Noon EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Air Force +139, Navy -169
Spread: Air Force +3.5, Navy -3.5
Over/Under: 53.5
The Middies are hot on the Falcons’ heels, coming in at fourth in the country at just over 358 yards per contest. Clearly, this Saturday’s game should be a scrappy, triple-option laden slobber-knocker.
On the visiting side, the attack is funneled through QB Tim Jefferson. The senior can throw a little, as he has 357 passing yards and a 4-2 ratio on the season to go along with his 150 rushing yards and two rush TDs. When Jefferson is not making plays, the rock is handed to Asher Clark, who has nearly 300 rushing yards on just 33 attempts (good for 8.8 yards per clip) and FB Mike DeWitt, who has a workmanlike 24 totes for 154 yards and a pair of majors.
Navy, meanwhile, is commanded by a running committee led by QB Kriss Proctor and senior FB Alexander Teich. Proctor and Teich both have eclipsed 250 rush yards so far, and Proctor has punched the ball in on the ground four times already. Passing is a secondary concern in Navy’s offense, though Proctor also has three TDs through the air.
Perhaps the crux of the story, then, will come down to defense. Navy has been quite stout on that side of the ball, only surrendering 24 points to SEC heavy hitter (and #10-ranked in the nation) South Carolina last week. Even after the 24 points to Carolina, Navy ranks a respectable 27th in the country in points against. Navy always tends to have a small, quick, scrappy group that is never short on moxie. Air Force is a little more of a work in progress, only ranking 70th in the nation in the same category and giving up 20 or more points to FCS opponents like South Dakota and Tennessee State (not to mention having 35 points dropped on them by TCU).
If the defenses play true to the statistics, it looks like Navy should have the edge in this game. The tilts pitting the academies against each other are always spirited contests, so the cliché of “throw the stats out the window” certainly is relevant – the game is played on the field. But it is quite clear that both sides will rack up the yardage on the ground; the difference should come in which side can make a key stop or two at the right time.
Another reason this reality seems to be to Navy’s advantage is the Falcons’ barrage of injuries on defense. There are three starters in the front seven that will not be ready to go – NT Ryan Gardner, DE Zach Payne and LB Patrick Hennessey. Safety Brian Lindsay, another key contributor in the secondary, is also out. The attrition on “D” will doubtlessly be a significant hurdle for Air Force this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Navy has an important injury on offense in the person of RB Aaron Santiago, but still have Proctor and Teich to carry the load. Back-ups John Howell or Bo Snelson should be able to replace Santiago at least adequately.
It should be a kickin’ atmosphere in Annapolis for this one – the Air Force-Navy game doesn’t have as much pageantry as Army-Navy, but it is still a match-up that students certainly circle on the calendar. It should be an old-fashioned tilt with lots of continuous running of the clock (Re: not too many aerial theatrics) but thanks mainly to defense, look for the home team to have a slight advantage.
Score Prediction: Navy 35, Air Force 24
Over/Under Prediction: 59
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