Utah State (1-2) vs Brigham Young (2-2)
In 2011, the year that Brigham Young University broke away to be an FBS Independent, the Cougars have had an uninspiring campaign to date.
Utah State Aggies (1-2) at Brigham Young Cougars (2-2)
LaVell Edwards Stadium, Provo UT
Friday, Sept. 30, 8:00 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Utah State +345, BYU -313
Spread: Utah State +7.5, BYU -7.5
Over/Under: 50.5
BYU, formerly a consistently strong Mountain West program, is playing .500 ball, with the two wins coming against miserable Ole Miss in Week One and a one-score margin versus UCF last week. The Cougars kept it close against Texas a couple weeks ago (not the achievement this was earlier in the decade) and got embarrassed by in-state rival Utah.
This Friday, another in-state foe comes to Provo in the Utah State Aggies. The game should afford BYU the chance to get on the positive side of the ledger, provided BYU brings its best run-stuffing credentials to the table. The Aggies are currently fifth in the nation in rushing (316 yards per game) and are scoring more than 40 points per contest. Both of USU’s losses were by narrow margins, against Auburn (42-38 L) and middling Colorado State (35-34 in OT). Utah State RB Robert Turpin is having a great season so far, with 365 yards on the ground and eight TDs. There’s no doubt that the visiting Aggies will be dishing out a healthy dose of Turpin and looking to upset BYU with a run-oriented, clock-chewing attack.
With the exception of the egg that was laid two weeks ago against Utah, BYU’s defense has been pretty good at keeping opponents in check this season. Perhaps a larger concern, though, is the somewhat sophomore slump of QB Jake Heaps. The starter that was an upstart player last season is completing just over 50% of his passes and has thrown 5 INTs to just three scores. Strong play out of Heaps is the key element to BYU’s offense and he must start playing better if the Cougars are to put together a decent season. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
It hasn’t been all doom and gloom, though. Freshman WR Ross Apo is having a great start, catching all three of the TDs Heaps has chucked and chipping in further with 12 receptions for 140 yards. The 6”3, 202-lb Arlington Texas product has quickly emerged as a vital threat in the Cougars’ offensive game-plan.
If BYU can pull it together against the visiting Aggies, it will be a major hurdle cleared towards grabbing some momentum in the regular season. The Cougars’ next games come against eminently beatable teams such as San Jose State, Idaho State and the (suddenly awful) Pac-12 representative Oregon State. Assuming the Cougars can succeed in bottling up Turpin somewhat, it will go a long way toward BYU looking down the barrel of a 6-2 record, rather than .500.
This game definitely shouldn’t be a cakewalk, especially with the confidence Utah State has in its running game. Unlike the NFL lately, a strong running game is still a dominant asset in college football. It has a transcendent way of maintaining rhythm for a visiting team and cooling the pressure on the quarterback – very pertinent in this case, with freshman Chuckie Keeton under center for USU. Turpin has decent depth behind him in senior Michael Smith; if the ground game keeps rolling like it has, State has a very good chance of nabbing a win in the hostile territory of Provo.
Ultimately, BYU has a more talented football team, Heaps should eventually break out of the doldrums (this week is as good a time for that to happen as any) and I like the Cougars’ chances at home. You can bet that the Cougars’ defensive coaching staff will be harping on defending the run – that seems to be the only outlet that would lead to BYU slipping to a sub-.500 record.
Score Prediction: BYU 33, Utah State 24
Over/Under Prediction: 58
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