No. 3 Louisiana State (2-0) vs No. 25 Mississippi State (1-1) Handicapping Preview
In the first couple weeks of the 2011 season, the SEC has rapidly transformed into a defense-oriented, slobberknocking battle-of-attrition style of football to a barnburning, scoreboard-lighting brand.
LSU vs. Mississippi St.
Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville MS
Thursday, Sept. 15, 8:05 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: LSU -165, Miss. St. +145
Spread: LSU -3.5, Miss. St. +3.5
Over/Under: 50
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Mississippi State and LSU are just two of the SEC teams that are absolutely humming in terms of producing touchdowns. State has been led by the run-heavy attack of RB Vick Ballard and QB Chris Relf, who has also been a competent passer. The Tigers, meanwhile, doesn’t quite have the explosive offense, yet has had success with field position and not asking QB Jarrett Lee to do too much.
While in the past we might be completely used to seeing a 13-10 or a 9-7 ballgame from these two SEC West outfits, one imagines that there will be more scoring this Thursday night in Starkville. Last week, the Bulldogs narrowly missed out on knocking off Auburn, last year’s national champs, falling 41-34. Head coach Dan Mullen and his players will have their sights focused on humbling another prestigious West division team, hoping some home-field advantage will give MSU the slight boost it needs to get over the hump.
The Bulldogs have a grave test, though, up against the LSU defense. A unit known for stinginess should bottle up State’s effective run game better than most. The Tigers are rolling after dispatching an elite Pac-12 program (Oregon) easily in Week One and crushing Northwestern State last weekend. The offense must deal with a hobbled Lee (ankle) and a suspended WR Russell Shepard – who is a dynamic athlete – but the LSU game-plan often is to “nickel and dime” with the offense and let the “D” do the heavy lifting. The Tigers’ running attack does a good job of controlling the pace of the game, created by the duo of sophomores Michael Ford and Spencer Ware. The NFL-like LSU defense usually can get an opponent to cough up a few turnovers, which the Tigers then do an excellent job of converting into points.
Mississippi State has the talent and the moxie to beat LSU, but last week was a pretty disheartening loss against a depleted Auburn side. Mullen must get his troops to remain upbeat and believe that they can not only hang with, but beat the best teams in the conference (and often, by extension, the nation). Ballard and Relf have been running wild on defenses to this point, but the stingy LSU front seven will definitely present the toughest challenge to date. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Bulldogs have some injuries along the offensive line, so LSU might reap the benefits of pressuring Relf. MSU’s starting center, Quentin Saulsberry, is banged up and their starting LT James Carmon is out – two crucial pieces to an effective pass protection scheme. LSU has the athletes up front to make Mississippi State’s backfield a living hell, despite the exploits of Ballard. Under center, Relf must also be careful not to make poor decisions, as the LSU secondary is very talented and will capitalize on errors.
Despite last week’s loss, MSU is still a Top 25 team and by most accounts, deserves to be there. But when a suddenly upstart team suffers a close defeat like the Bulldogs did in Week 2, it is a serious showcase of resiliency to come back and play well the following week. The fact is, it will take MSU playing its best brand of football to dispatch the #3-ranked team in the nation. The ’Dogs will certainly give LSU a game, but I see LSU disrupting State’s offensive flow just enough to pull out a road victory.
Trends:
Under is 6-2 in LSU last 8 conference games.
Under is 14-6 in LSU last 20 games on grass.
Under is 7-2 in MISST last 9 conference games.
LSU are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings.
Favorite is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
Score Prediction: LSU 24, Miss. St. 17
Over/Under Prediction: 41
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