Alabama Crimson Tide vs Penn St. Nittany Lions Handicapping Preview
A glut of marquee match-ups greets the college football world in the second week of the season; one of the games that stand out is Alabama vs. Penn State.
#3 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. #23 Penn State Nittany Lions
Beaver Stadium, State College PA
Saturday, Sept. 10, 3:35 pm EST
NCAA Odds from Bookmaker Sportsbook:
MoneyLine: Alabama -370, Penn St. +305
Spread: Alabama -10, Penn St. +10
Over/Under: 42
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This particular game is savory thanks to the rich tradition of these two classically prestigious schools – both currently ranked in the Top 25.
That the Tide, one of the nation’s elite football teams, travels to Happy Valley to play in perhaps the craziest venue in America doesn’t hurt either.
Despite the raucous home advantage for Penn State, the edge is with Alabama mainly due to the teams’ situations under center. The Lions are still using a platoon system at quarterback between sophomore Rob Bolden and junior Matt McGloin. Both pivots had several attempts in a Week One drubbing of Indiana State and legendary coach Joe Paterno doesn’t seem to lean one way or the other. Fellow QB Kevin Newsome, a highly-touted recruit buried on the Penn State depth chart, has opted to transfer for this reason.
Alabama also has a QB new to the starting gig in sophomore A.J. McCarron, but he plays in a system where he is not asked to do too much thanks to stud RB Trent Richardson, ’Bama’s mammoth offensive line and a defense that is perhaps second to none. McCarron had 226 yards, a TD and a couple INTs in an easy opening week win versus Kent State.
This is Alabama’s only serious test before it gets into a healthy SEC schedule; the Tide must expect a much livelier battle than their flaccid MAC opponent last week. Penn State RB Silas Redd had a great day vs. ISU last week and the Lions will have confidence after an easy 41-7 win. The team will have plenty of wind in its sails with the notable home-field advantage and the Lions have an excellent receiving tandem (Derek Moye, Justin Brown) and some strong defenders, especially in the back seven. Yet, the Lions still must be apprehensive about playing arguably the best team in the FBS. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Richardson, and several players on Alabama’s defense, could play – and perhaps start in some cases – in the NFL right now. Tide head coach Nick Saban is well-known for grooming and recruiting the elite talent in the football world and the Tide never really disappointed until an embarrassing comeback win by bitter rival Auburn late last season. That embarrassment is probably still fresh in the mouths of Alabama’s returning players; it wouldn’t be wise to think that ’Bama will lose its focus and get tripped up in a non-conference game. If Penn State plays a fantastic game and forces the young McCarron into errors, the Lions are certainly capable of pulling the upset, but the Tide “D” also has the ability to stymie Penn State’s attack en route to an easy win for the visitors.
Another reason this is an intriguing game is because it pits one of the upper-middle players in the Big Ten against the SEC’s elite program. Any non-conference game against two of the granddaddy conferences is sure to perk up the ears of college football fans. Despite the hoopla that is sure to accompany this game in Pennsylvania on Saturday afternoon, conventional wisdom sees that Alabama should lean on its running game, mauling O-line and defense. Accordingly, the Tide should leave daunting Happy Valley with a road win and a 2-0 record.
Trends:
Over is 8-1-1 in ALAB last 10 non-conference games.
Over is 8-3-1 in ALAB last 12 games in September.
Under is 7-1 in PENST last 8 non-conference games.
Over is 7-2 in PENST last 9 games overall.
PENST are 2-6 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Score Prediction: Alabama 28, Penn State 14
Over/Under Prediction: 42
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