Fresno State Bulldogs (4-8, 3-4 WAC) vs. San Diego State Aztecs (7-4, 4-3 WAC)
NFL legend Marshall Faulk’s alma mater, San Diego State, gets a punch-drunk Fresno State team at home to close out its 2011 regular season in the Western Athletic Conference.
Saturday, Dec. 3, 8 pm EST
Qualcomm Stadium, San Diego CA
Betting Lines from Sportsbook.com:
MoneyLine: Fresno St. +260, SD St. -320
Spread: Fresno St. +8, SD St. -8
Over/Under: 59.5
The Bulldogs have a couple strong individual performers on offense in QB Derek Carr, the younger brother of former #1 overall NFL pick David Carr, and RB Robbie Rouse, who has 1,493 rushing yards to go with 14 majors.
Little bro QB Derek has amassed 3,208 passing yards and 24 scores to just eight INTs.
That’s where the good news ends for Fresno State. The Bulldogs have just an average offense and an atrocious defense, which ranks a pitiable 107th in the FBS in points against (over 35 per contest). Perhaps skewing that total is a 57-7 trouncing at the hands of #5-ranked Boise State, but still – the “D” is a black mark for inland California.
To have hope of ending 2011 on the right note, the Bulldogs must improve that against an Aztecs unit that rides excellent sophomore RB Ronnie Hillman, as his 1,478 yards and 15 TDs prove.
While senior pivot Ryan Lindley is not the most prolific passer, he is a savvy, consummate vet that has guided S.D. State to another strong season. What will help his case this week is the absence of two starting defensive backs for the Bulldogs, Phillip Thomas and Zak Hill, due to injuries.
If it weren’t for conference stalwarts Boise State and TCU (which are bolting in the near future, anyway, thanks to all the conference re-alignment), the Aztecs and Wyoming would be battling for the top spot in the WAC.
A good litmus test for middle-of-the-pack WAC teams always is its performance against Boise and TCU. The Aztecs performed much better against those two powerhouses than Fresno State, which tells me that San Diego State is a stronger overall team (if their contrasting records didn’t already paint a picture). [soliloquy id=”82219″]
If the Aztecs can use some of their southern California athletes to get after Carr, they will probably pressure the Bulldogs into mistakes and the rest should promptly fall into line. A definite casualty for San Diego State is LB Logan Ketchum, who is not available due to an injury to his pectoral muscle.
Ketchum is one of the Aztecs’ leading tacklers in the past couple seasons, so his absence will call on the home team’s limited depth to answer the bell.
The Aztecs definitely cannot take Fresno State lightly – Carr and Rouse can manufacture points quickly – but they should be able to handle the visitors provided that they play with an aim to finish the 2011 regular season with an exclamation point.
If some defenders other than Ketchum step up to play aggressively versus the in-state, in-conference visitors, you can more than likely book an eighth win on the ledger.
Especially after losing excellent head coach Brady Hoke this off-season to Michigan Wolverines, S.D. State should be proud of its 2011 output.
It is quite possible that Faulk will be able to enjoy his Sunday with a smile, regardless of his obligations with the NFL Network.
Game Prediction: San Diego State 38, Fresno State 17
Over/Under Prediction: 55
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