Gators vs. Bulldogs Free Pick | Preview

Florida vs. Mississippi State

10/24/09:
Line: Florida -22.5
Records – Florida: 6-0 SU, 2-2-1 ATS
Mississippi St: 3-4 SU, 3-3 ATS

Mitch’s Free Pick Against The Spread College Football

It’s a big day in Starkville, Mississippi as the Florida Gators come to town to play the Mississippi State Bulldogs.

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There is a new coach and renewed hope at MSU this season as Dan Mullen, former Florida offensive coordinator takes over for Sylvester Croom. While the results haven’t been consistent, they have been improved as the Bulldogs have been competitive throughout the first half of the season. Mississippi State is coming in off of a win against Middle Tennessee State, w win which ended a three game losing streak. The Bulldogs offense seems to be much improved but their defense seems to be non existent as they have been getting shredded. In Mississippi State’s defense, they have played a very tough schedule including LSU, Auburn, Houston, and Georgia Tech. None of their losses have been blowouts and the team has played very competitively. They will need to play their best football of the year to keep this one close enough to have a shot at winning.

Mississippi State By The Numbers: Offensive Averages:

Points 27.5 (60th/6th)
Overall Yds 399.8 (45th/5th)
Passing Yds 174.0 (100th/9th)
Rushing Yds 225.8 (11th/3rd)

Defensive Averages: Points 27.0 (79th /9th)
Overall Yds 372.5 (75th /10th)
Passing Yds 231.3 (83rd /10th)
Rushing Yds 141.2 (70th /8th)

* In parenthesis are National and Conference Rank, respectively

The Florida gators survived their biggest scare of the season last week at home against Arkansas. The Hogs were out to show the world that they could play with Florida and they did until the final gun when a field goal finally kept Florida perfect. We know all about the Gators, they are loaded on both sides of the ball, have guys who can run as fast or faster than anyone, and are the defending National Champions. With all of that comes the target on their back and every team they play, especially every road trip they take, is their opponent’s game of the year. Florida will have to play well at all times to avoid the upset as they enter the second half of their schedule. We saw earlier this season where an ex-offensive coordinator turned head coach beat his old team, we saw this when Washington beat USC, and Florida knows it is always a possibility as anything can happen any Saturday.

Florida By The Numbers: Offensive Averages:

Points 39.0 (7th/1st)
Overall Yds 486.4 (6th/2nd)
Passing Yds 201.8 (77th/7th)
Rushing Yds 284.6 (2nd/1st)

Defensive Averages: Points 6.4 (1st /1st)
Overall Yds 202.6 (1st /1st)
Passing Yds 115.2 (2nd /1st)
Rushing Yds 87.4 (12th /2nd)

Mississippi State is 5-0 against the spread at home against teams with winning road records but they are just 1-4 against the spread following a straight up win. Florida is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 SEC games and 11-0 against the spread in their last 11 road games.

While the huge amount of points looks enticing, Mississippi State’s defense against the run doesn’t and against a team who can light up the scoreboard on every single play and sometimes does just that, I don’t think even this is enough points for a MSU Cover.

Mitch’s Pick: Florida -22

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