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NCAA Football

Oregon St. vs. Penn St. Gambling Preview + Free Pick

NCAAF Betting Sept 5th, 2008 – RM
Beavers at Nittany Lions

The Penn State Nittany Lions (1-0 SU, 0-0 ATS), coming off a victory in which it did not break a sweat, will face a little bit more of a challenge on Saturday when they take on the Oregon State Beavers (0-1 SU & ATS) in an NCAA football contest that is set to get underway at 3:30 PM ET at Beaver Stadium (home of the Nittany Lions, not Oregon State) in State College, PA.

BetUS NCAA Betting Odds: PENN STATE -16.5, Total 47.5

Here are some of the NCAA football betting trends as they relate to this matchup:

* OSU has won and covered four of its last five games
* OSU has played four of its last five games OVER the total
* OSU has played five of its last six road games OVER the total
* PSU has won four of its last five games SU
* PSU has covered two of its last six games
* PSU has won 22 of its last 24 home games SU

Let’s get a little un-confused before we get started. Even though Oregon State’s nickname is the “Beavers,” and this is Beaver Stadium they’re playing at, this is Penn State’s home game, not theirs. And I guess that means something, inasmuch as Penn State has won 22 of its last 24 games as the host.

In effect, Penn State opens its 2008 season in this one. Sure, there was a game on August 30, in which the athletic department at State College charged money for fans to walk through the door, and where the Penn State offensive and defensive units combined to extract a 344-yard advantage over a group of visitors who came sightseeing from Coastal Carolina University, but that 66-10 game was really no more than a glorified scrimmage. Joe Paterno should be ashamed to put “wins” like that on his record.

Oregon State played in a real game last Thursday, a 36-28 defeat to Stanford in which there were some bright spots, namely the play of QB Lyle Moevao, who made a couple of mistakes (2 INT’s) but also threw for 404 yards and three touchdowns. Moevao’s weapons are nothing to laugh at. Sammy Stroughter, who missed most of last season with a kidney ailment but gained 1293 yards through the air two seasons ago, leads a capable group of wideouts that includes Shane Morales (13 catches, 151 yards against Stanford) and Darrell Catchings.

Oregon State, even with that loss, has won 17 of its last 23 games. But the Beaver defense is more of a question mark this season. In 2007 they were sensational in terms of stopping the run; in fact, they surrendered 2.1 yards per carry and 71 yards per game, both of which were best in the country. But after losing every starter in the front seven one must conclude that this club is going to have a lot more headaches stopping people. That seemed evident in the Stanford game, as Toby Gerhart ran wild for 147 yards (7.7 per carry).

Conclusion: the running lanes will be open for Penn State’s backfield, which produced four runners with 60 yards or more in the exhibition game. We’re going to move “over” the 47.5-point total, as it is posted in the BetUS NCAA college football betting odds.

JAY’S PLAY: OVER 47.5 **

By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"