Venue/Stadium: Amon Carter Stadium
Time/Date: 8:05 p.m. Eastern, October 28
College Football Odds from Bodog
Moneyline: -480
Spread (ATS): TCU -13
Over/Under: 56
There’s going to be a different flavor surrounding this season’s matchup between BYU – the team that wanted to go to the Big 12, but won’t (at least for the time being) – and TCU, the team that succeeded in moving to the conference of the South Central Plains.
Unlike in recent years, the two teams face off in a non-conference battle. BYU is still an Independent, while TCU competes for a Mountain West title one more time before heading to the Big 12 Conference. TCU has absolutely owned the Cougars over the last three years, outscoring BYU 101-17 in three straight wins.
This season is a different look for both teams. TCU’s defense has not been as robust as one might expect, while BYU has tabbed backup Riley Nelson as its starting quarterback, selecting a field general who is more dangerous with his legs than his throwing arm. BYU’s offense had struggled, with wins being forged largely by the defense until Nelson took over for opening-day starter Jake Heaps. In the first four games with Heaps at the helm, BYU averaged just 16 points per game. Including the game that Nelson won late against Utah State, BYU is averaging 38 points per game in its last four outings. Not only has Nelson brought a new look to the offense, but the Cougars discovered a run game on the feet of Michael Alisa, a converted linebacker who played running back in high school. With Alisa’s emergence, BYU has averaged 265 rushing yards per game in the last three games, and the Cougar offense seems to be peaking at the right time for this matchup. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Even though TCU’s defense has been a bit softer than usual, the Horned Frogs’ offense has been a balanced, well-oiled machine. With Ed Wesley at full strength, BYU will have to account for TCU’s unique combination of speed and power at running back found in Wesley, Matthew Tucker, and Waymon James. The Frogs average 217 rushing yards per game on the legs of these three. Interestingly, the two rushing defenses in this game are nearly identical for BYU (123.25 rushing yards allowed per game) and TCU (123.71).
TCU’s three-man committee at running back was a known quantity before the season started. Where the Frogs’ offense has picked up is the emergence of Casey Pachall as a legitimate Division I passer. Pachall is completing 70 percent of his passes while sporting a 17 to 4 touchdown-to-interception ratio. His accuracy has made TCU’s offense a scary picture for defenses, creating enough of a passing game to spread out defenses and set up the running game. TCU has been able to spread out linebackers and get only six or seven defenders in the tackle box; that’s when the running came can be particularly effective. It will be very hard for BYU to score points, and it will be just as hard for the Cougars to stop TCU’s offense. This game should not be particularly close when the fourth quarter rolls around.
College Football Betting Pick: TCU
