CFB Football Previews – Duke Blue Devils vs Boston College Eagles
Something has to give when Duke and Boston College meet in a battle of 0-2 ACC rivals this week. Duke expected to be where it is but Boston College has to be disappointed.
NCAAF Week 3: Duke vs. Boston College
Date: Saturday, September 17, 2011
Venue: Alumni Stadium, Chestnut Hill, MA
Broadcast: ESPN-GP/ESPN3
Duke Blue Devils at Boston College Eagles Betting Lines from 5Dimes.com
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Boston College -7
Over/Under: 48
Will the Eagles bounce back at home in Week 3?
Duke Blue Devils (0-2)
The Duke Blue Devils really haven’t changed much from last year. They don’t play that whole “defense” thing very well. They don’t run the ball all that well. They prefer to air it out and, even though they do, they aren’t even that great at doing so.
Duke lost to Richmond at home 23-21 in Week 1, an embarrassing defeat considering Richmond is an FCS team. Next up was mighty Stanford. Predictably, Heisman Trophy frontrunner Andrew Luck lit the Blue Devils up for 290 passing yards and four touchdowns. Duke quarterback Sean Renfree was a competent 19 of 27 for 179 yards and no picks. The Blue Devils also mixed Anthony Boone, Brandon Connette and Alex King as throwers.
Theoretically, Duke’s offense could match up reasonably well with Boston College this week, as the Eagles are better at stopping the run than the pass.
Boston College Eagles (0-2)
The first two weeks of Boston College’s season have been disastrous. It’s not so much that the team has averaged 310 yards over its two defeats. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Chase Rettig has completely only half his passes and has no touchdown passes versus three picks, but that isn’t a huge surprise. He wasn’t very good in 2010 so expectations weren’t high for 2011.
The big letdown has been the Eagles’ “D.” This team had the country’s top-ranked run defense a year ago. So far this year, the Eagles have been gouged for 227 rushing yards against Northwestern and 235 against Central Florida. If the Eagles can’t stop the run – or run the ball, for that matter – what do they do well? It would help their offense if they got Montel Harris, their top playmaker, back in the backfield this week after he missed a game due to injury.
He’s listed as questionable for Week 3.
CFB Wagering Trends:
Over is 7-2 in DUKE last 9 games in September.
Under is 6-2 in DUKE last 8 road games.
BCOLL are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 home games.
BCOLL are 4-17 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Under is 20-8 in BCOLL last 28 games overall.
The pick:
Ugh. Both of these teams have been unimpressive, so this pick is between a rock and a hard place. The weakness to target is the seven-point spread. Sure, Duke sucks, but is Boston College really a touchdown better?
Look for a grubby game and for Boston College to squeak by on the strength of home field. But I don’t see the Eagles covering; they’re 1-8 against the spread over their last nine home games.
Duke vs Boston College prediction: Boston College 23, Duke 20
Money Line: OFF
Spread: Duke +7
Over/Under: UNDER 48
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