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Oregon Ducks vs. USC Trojans Gambling Prediction & Week 10 Preview

Ducks vs Trojans NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping

In what will be one of the marquee matchups in all of college football this weekend, the USC Trojans are set to host the No. 4 Oregon Ducks. The game doesn’t have the same flare that it had when the year started, as the Trojans are no longer BCS title contenders, but that doesn’t mean they’re not looking to spoil the Ducks’ season. Despite both teams being top-25 defensive squads, this game could feature a lot of points.

No. 4 Oregon Ducks (8-0) vs No. 17 USC Trojans (6-2)
Saturday November 3, 2012 Los Angeles Coliseum
LOS ANGELES, CALIF. 7:00 PM ET

Moneyline: Oregon -330, USC + 270 from SportsBettingOnline.ag
Spread: Oregon -8 O/U: 70

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Oregon Ducks

The Oregon Ducks have the most potent offense in the country this season, as evident by their 70-14 routing of the Colorado Buffaloes this past weekend. Colorado certainly isn’t USC, so don’t expect such a high number this time around, but having averaged 53.4 points per game (first in the nation), they know how to put the ball in the endzone.

The way the Ducks do that most effectively is on the ground.

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Their ground attack is good for 330.6 yards per game, which is good enough for third in the nation. They have a three-headed monster in quarterback Marcus Mariota, tailback Kenjon Barner and all-purpose contributor De’Anthony Thomas. Defensively, this team is also strong, as they’ve allowed just 19.4 points per game.

We know what the Ducks can do on both offense and defense, but what this game is going to come down to is whether or not redshirt freshman quarterback Marcus Mariota can stay composed in a hostile environment. His first true test was supposed to be on the road against Arizona State, but when the game was well in hand at 43-7 in the first half, it was clear that he was A-Okay. USC is a different kind of beast, and their two losses mean nothing when considering the environment the young leader will face on Saturday.

USC Trojans

The USC Trojans are coming off a high-scoring performance against the Arizona Wildcats, and wide receiver Marquis Lee was the star of the show. He had 16 receptions for 345 yards and two touchdowns, showing why he deserves every inch of the conversation that he’s the best receiver in college football. Matt Barkley was outstanding as well, throwing for 493 yards and three scores, but the problem was, he also threw two interceptions.

The Trojans have a very good defense this year, but they allowed 39 points to the Wildcats last week. They were ahead by 15 points in the third quarter and they allowed the high-powered offense of Arizona to work their way back into the game. The Oregon Ducks are known for weaing down their opponents late with their pace, but they’re also the team that is averaging more than 30 points per contest in first halves alone. If USC gets a lead, they need to keep it on Saturday. [soliloquy id=”82219″]

Stopping the run has been a focus this season for the Trojans defense. They’ve allowed just 123.1 yards on the ground per game compared to 242.8 through the air. If they can make Marcus Mariota beat them with his arm—not his legs—they’re going to put the pressure on the young quarterback.

This game could very well come down to the final possession—as it did last year—but USC’s inconsistencies make them a tough team to count on. They’ll test Oregon’s defense all game long, but when it comes down to it, the Ducks should exit L.A. with their championship aspirations as high as ever.

Trends

  • Ducks are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 road games.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
  • Ducks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
  • Over is 6-1 in Ducks last 7 games following a ATS win.
  • Over is 11-2 in Ducks last 13 games in November.

O/U Pick: Over 70
Score Prediction: Oregon 42 – USC 31

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