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Hilltoppers vs. Trojans NCAA Football Pick / Gambling Preview (Nov. 27)

Western Kentucky vs Troy Betting – Troy Tries To Bounce Back After Big Loss

Before College Football Gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this week, we have a Friday NCAA game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly Football picks for online ncaa football betting action.

Team records:
Western Kentucky: 2-9 SU, 7-4 ATS
Troy: 5-5 SU, 2-8 ATS
Go INSIDE This MAtchup With Our CFB ATS Stats —>

The Troy Trojans are on their deathbed in terms of the Sun Belt Conference race. However, the Trojans can claim bowl eligibility by defeating the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.

NCAA football betting: Western Kentucky Hilltoppers @ Troy Trojans

Online Betting Odds: Troy -13

Why To Bet On Western Kentucky

Yes, the Hilltoppers are only 2-9 as they wind toward the end of their season, but when one realizes that Western Kentucky went 0-12 in the 2009 season, this year has been a clear and undeniable improvement for the program. Last year’s club under former coach David Elson could never close down an opponent in the fourth quarter. This year’s team has managed to do the deed twice, against Louisiana-Lafayette and also against Arkansas State, both on the road. Yes, Western Kentucky – at 2-5 in the Sun Belt – is a very respectable 2-1 in conference road games. It’s those home games that have been a problem for first-year coach Willie Taggart. WKU is 0-4 on its home field.

Well, this game is at Troy’s Movie Gallery Veterans Stadium, so the Hilltoppers should feel right at home. This team might not win the game outright, but with Troy giving 13 points and having allowed a total of 121 points in its last two games, one would like to think that Western Kentucky’s offense, led by agile dual-threat quarterback Kawaun Jakes and workhorse tailback Bobby Rainey (1,492 rushing yards and a 4.8 yards-per-carry average with 13 touchdowns) can do a lot of damage against the Trojans’ defense, which is clearly deficient and is not playing up to the program’s normally high standards. With a 13-point spread, Western Kentucky could definitely pile up enough points to keep the game close.

Why To Bet On Troy

First of all, one would like to think that the Trojans, after being embarrassed in consecutive games by Florida International (a 52-35 loss) and South Carolina (a 69-24 loss that could have been much worse if the Gamecocks had kept their starters in for 60 minutes), will play with a lot of pride in what is their home-field finale for the 2010 season. Troy is a proud program, having won the last two Sun Belt Conference championships and three of the last four. Troy was in position to repeat as Sun Belt champion, but the stunning loss to Florida International ruined their plans; Troy was a shoo-in for the league crown if it could have managed to foil FIU, but the Golden Panthers ambushed them.

Now, this team must regroup, but it still has something to play for: bowl eligibility. That should motivate the Trojans to play well on their home field. Moreover, the team they’re playing – Western Kentucky – has blown three fourth-quarter leads this season in Sun Belt games. The Hilltoppers were outscored 45-6 in the fourth quarter in those three losses (to Louisiana-Monroe, Florida Atlantic, and Middle Tennessee). If there’s a team Troy can get healthy against, it is Western Kentucky.

How The Game Will Play Out

Troy will indeed get healthy against Western Kentucky, and the Trojans shouldn’t even need to come from behind in the fourth quarter. Troy will play with pride and purpose and salvage some measure of its season with a “take-out-your-frustrations” kind of win over a clearly inferior opponent. Take Troy in what should be an angry blowout win for the home team.

Recent Trends

Under is 7-1 in WKEN last 8 games in November.
WKEN are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 conference games.
Under is 8-3 in WKEN last 11 conference games.
Over is 13-5 in TROY last 18 games overall.
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Western Kentucky’s last 6 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Western Kentucky is 2-23 SU in its last 25 games
Troy is 13-1 SU in its last 14 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Troy’s last 18 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Troy’s last 7 games at home
Troy is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games

Western Kentucky Troy Betting Pick: Troy -13

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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.

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