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Lobos vs. Rams NCAA Football Pick / Gambling Preview (Sept. 30)

New Mexico Colorado State – Lower-tier Mountain West clubs shoot for respectability

Before College Football Gambling fans turn their attention to other sports betting events this week, we have the Thursday NCAA game of the day pick for you. It’s time for our weekly Football picks for online ncaa football betting action.

Team records:
New Mexico: 0-7 SU, 2-5 ATS
Colorado State: 2-6 SU, 4-4 ATS

The New Mexico Lobos and the Colorado State Rams are both trying to avoid the cellar in the Mountain West Conference. They meet this weekend in Fort Collins, Colorado.

NCAA football betting: New Mexico Lobos @ Colorado State Rams

Online Betting Odds: Colorado State -15.5

Why To Bet On New Mexico

The Lobos are 0-7, so it’s not as though they’re ever going to be an attractive choice in any situation, but something very interesting did happen last week against San Diego State: New Mexico covered the spread. The Lobos committed 10 penalties for 88 yards. They converted just one third-down in 12 attempts.

They turned the ball over twice and held the ball for fewer than 26 minutes. Yet, they only lost by 10 to a San Diego State club that upset Air Force earlier this season. If New Mexico can play San Diego State competitively despite making all sorts of mistakes and displaying the futility that has defined the Lobos in recent years, just imagine what could happen if New Mexico ever played a game with very few errors.

When one also realizes that Colorado State is only 2-6 and 1-3 in the Mountain West, it’s clear that New Mexico is playing a team that is not quite as good as San Diego State. If UNM can stay within 10 points of the Aztecs despite a bad performance, New Mexico can certainly play Colorado State close for four quarters and, just possibly, pull off the elusive first win of the season.

Stranger things have happened in sports. Consider the fact that last weekend, another lousy and winless team, Western Kentucky, somehow beat Louisiana-Lafayette on the road by 33 points, 54-21. No, New Mexico won’t win this game by 33, but it could win by a field goal.

Why To Bet On Colorado State

The best reason, of course, to take Colorado State is that it is indeed playing New Mexico. It’s impossible to deny how bad the Lobos are; while CSU rates in the bottom 15 percent of the nation in numerous statistical categories, New Mexico is in the bottom five percent and has managed to set the bar lower than Colorado State has.

Moreover, there’s a very interesting point about Colorado State that might get overlooked in advance of this game: The Rams have played good teams in the Mountain West.

Indeed, while CSU is 1-3 in the conference, those three losses all came against the heavyweights of the league: TCU, Utah and Air Force. Unless Utah stumbles at Air Force or San Diego State, it’s extremely unlikely that anyone in the Mountain West will beat TCU or Utah this season. The only game TCU or Utah are likely to lose this year is the game matching those two teams on Nov. 6. If anyone else in the league beats TCU or Utah, it will be a huge upset.

Colorado State, therefore, might still be a decent team in its conference, and that’s why New Mexico should worry as it heads north to Colorado to play the Rams.

How The Game Will Play Out

Colorado State is indeed a better team than its record suggests. New Mexico is still as bad as its record indicates. The Rams should post big offensive numbers and cover the spread without too much of a problem.

New Mexico Colorado State Betting Pick: Colorado State -15.5

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Poolside Rants hails from beautiful Bozeman Montana by way of Toronto, Canada. (Blame his wife for the move). He’s a Dallas Cowboys football honk. But please….don’t hold that against him. The man knows his sports and has uncanny knowledge when it comes to picking games.

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