Blue Devils vs Seminoles NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
The Florida State Seminoles may have fallen with their week-six loss to North Carolina State, but they are as dangerous as any team outside the top 10, and the Duke Blue Devils are going to find that out this weekend.
Duke Blue Devils (6-2) vs No. 12 Florida State Seminoles (7-1)
Saturday October 27, 2012
Doak Campbell Stadium, TALLAHASSEE, FL.
3:30 PM ET
Moneyline: OFF
Spread: Florida State -27 from GTBets.eu
O/U: 56.5
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Duke has had a successful season by their own measures, and with a 6-2 record on the year, week nine’s battle in Tallahassee could very well be a preview of the ACC championship game.
Duke Blue Devils
The Duke Blue Devils became bowl eligible with their victory over North Carolina last week, marking the first time they are set to play in the postseason since 1994. This year has been a resounding success for the team from Durham, N.C., but that in no way means they are ready for the offensive and defensive attacks of one of the nation’s best teams.
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The Seminoles rank seventh in the nation in passing defense, which is why the Blue Devils are going to need an especially solid game out of wide receiver Conner Vernon. The senior is averaging 93.6 yards per game this season, which is third in the ACC.
Across the field, cornerback Ross Cockrell must stand out against a passing attack that averages 288.9 yards per game. Cockrell has four interceptions on the year, but the team as a whole ranks just eightieth in the nation in passing defense.
Duke’s offense this season has been solid, as they’ve averaged 35 points per contest. Their running game has struggled all year, which is why quarterback protection is going to crucial this week. How much time Sean Renfree has to throw the ball will help determine how successful Duke’s offense can be. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Florida State Seminoles
The Florida State Seminoles are dangerous on both sides of the ball, but one of the unquestioned leaders of the team this year has been quarterback E.J. Manuel. The senior has been efficient all season, and it’s his ability to protect that ball (just four interceptions on the year) that has led the team to so many blowout victories. Efficiency is going to be key moving forward, especially considering star running back Chris Thompson is out for the year with a torn ACL.
Defensively, this team is just as good, if not better. They’re giving up the fifth-fewest points per game in the NCAA and they know how to get pressure on the opposing quarterback as a top-15 team in sacks.
Florida State has a clear-cut advantage in this game, and with virtually no chance of dropping their second major upset of the year, the biggest question becomes, can they cover the 27-point spread?
At this point, there’s not much reason to believe that this game will be tight in any sense of the word, but with the Blue Devils’ offense being as potent as it is, don’t be surprised if Duke somehow manages to get blown out and cover the spread at the same time.
Trends
- Blue Devils are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
- Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
- Blue Devils are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games in October.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 road games.
- Over is 4-0 in Blue Devils last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
- Over is 5-0 in Blue Devils last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
- Over is 6-0 in Blue Devils last 6 conference games.
O/U Pick: Over 56.5
Score Prediction: Florida St. 45 – Duke 24
