Bears vs Longhorns NCAA Football Spread/Handicapping
If offense is what you covet from college football, this is the game for you. The Baylor Bears are set to pay a visit to the 25th-ranked Texas Longhorns in what should be one of the highest-scoring battles all weekend.
Baylor Bears (3-2) vs No. 25 Texas Longhorns (4-2)
Saturday October 13, 2012
Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium, AUSTIN, TX
8:00 PM ET
Moneyline: Texas -370, Baylor +290 from Bovada
Spread: Texas -10
O/U: 80
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Baylor has already been a part of one shootout this season—a 70-63 loss against the then-ranked No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers—and this one has the potential to follow suit with two of the best offenses—and two of the worst defenses—taking the field at the same time.
Baylor Bears
The Baylor Bears are the proud owners of the nation’s most potent passing attack, and they’ll be sure to use it against the Texas Longhorns when the two meet in Austin this weekend. Having thrown the ball for nearly 400 yards per contest, quarterback Nick Florence has 18 touchdowns and 1,874 yards on the season. The senior does have nine interceptions to go with his incredible stat line, but it’s important to note that four of them came last week against the tough defense of the TCU Horned Frogs.
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The team also has the nation’s leader is receiving yards up to this point. Terrence Williams’ success has come largely as a result of Florence’s arm and Baylor’s system, but his ability to make plays will make the quarterback’s job easier when it comes to outscoring Texas.
With the exception of the meltdown against TCU last weekend, the Bears haven’t scored less than 48 points in any single game this season. They’re averaging the fourth-most points in all of college football (47.6). TCU has proven to have one of the best defenses in the country—a claim that Texas certainly can’t make—so don’t expect too much of a hangover from Baylor against the Longhorns.
The only problem to the equation is that Baylor’s defense has been downright awful all year. They’ve allowed 41.6 points per game, which is only good enough for 121st in the country, and they’re last in the nation in yards allowed.
Texas Longhorns
The Texas Longhorns may not have the passing prowess of the Baylor Bears, but their offense has been just as lethal through seven weeks of competition. Averaging the 10th most points in the entire country (42.5), the team from Austin, Tex. will try to outscore the Bears with offense, and offense only.
The Longhorns are allowing 32.5 points per game this season, as they’ve had extreme problems stopping both the run and the pass. The problem last week against the Oklahoma Sooners was that while the defense was expected to be bad, quarterback David Ash struggled against a tough defense. The Bears defense hasn’t forced a single turnover in its last two games, and if that trend sticks, there’s no reason to believe they’ll slow down Texas this weekend. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
The Bears are a great offensive team with a horrible defense, while the Longhorns are a great offensive team with a slightly less hideous defense. Needless to say, this is going to be a shootout in Texas, and the team that can make the fewest mistakes should win this weekend.
Trends
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 conference games.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.
Over is 3-0-1 in Bears last 4 games following a S.U. loss.
Over is 5-0-1 in Bears last 6 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 6-0-1 in Bears last 7 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Longhorns last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
O/U Pick: Over 80
Score Prediction: Texas 49 – Baylor 42
