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2009 Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati vs Florida Preview/Pick

The Cincinnati Bearcats and the Florida Gators battle for bragging rights in the 2009 Sugar Bowl on New Years Day in a BCS bowl game. Oddsmakers have the Gators listed as 11-point favorites the game’s total is 57.5…

2009 Sugar Bowl – #3 Cincinnati Bearcats vs. #5 Florida Gators

No. 3 Cincinnati Bearcats (12-0 SU, 6-5 ATS) vs. No. 5 Florida Gators (12-1 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)
Friday, January 1: 8:00 p.m.
BetUS.com Betting Odds: Florida -11, 57 ½

Here are some Sugar Bowl betting trends which may impact this game:

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Cincinnati: 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
Cincinnati: 1-3 ATS in their last 4 games
Cincinnati: The total has gone OVER in 3 of their last 4 games
Florida: 22-1 SU in their last 23 games
Florida: 3-5-1 ATS in their last 9games
Florida: The total has gone UNDER in their 3 of last 5 games

So many interesting subplots have emerged as we enter the 2009 Sugar Bowl. How will Cincinnati respond as they’ve lost their head coach Brian Kelly? And will Tim Tebow go out a winner in his final college game? According to the bowl game betting odds, most people believe that the answer to the second question is yes.

For Cincinnati, the toughest question for them isn’t about their physical ability, but about their mental strength, as they prepare for their first game in three years without Coach Brian Kelly. On the field, everything was easy for the Bearcats this year, as they went 12-0 and won their second straight Big East Championship.

On offense, they’re led by one of the most dynamic passing duos in college football, quarterback Tony Pike (2350 yards and 23 touchdowns), and wide receiver Mardy Gilyard, who finished the season with 80 catches for 1150 yards. The two, are a big reason why Cincinnati finished with the sixth ranked scoring offense (39 points per game), and the sixth ranked total offense (464 yards per game) in college football.

However, at times, as good as the offense was, they had to bail out a struggling defense. Having lost 10 starters from a year ago, the defense finished the year ranked 25th in college football, only allowing 20 points per game. However, they did give up a lot of yardage, an average of 350 per game. This Florida offense will be one of the most explosive that they’ve faced all year.

Speaking of Florida, for a group of seniors that won two National Championships in their careers, will they go out with one more victory, in what amounts to be a semi-meaningless Sugar Bowl? Leading the way of course is Tebow, the 2007 Heisman Trophy winner, and one of the greatest players in college football history. Tebow led his team in passing as well as rushing, accounting for 31 total touchdowns. His top receiver is actually his tight end, 1st Team All-American Aaron Hernandez.

However, if the Gators are to win this game, their defense will need to rebound from an abysmal showing in the SEC Championship game against Alabama, when they gave up 32 points. On the year however, they did have college football’s No. 3 scoring defense, and No. 3 passing defense, a key to stopping Cincinnati and Pike.

Going into this game, it isn’t necessarily about which team is more talented, both teams are a combined 24-1 on the season. More importantly, with Cincinnati working with a new coach, and Florida not playing for a championship, it’s which team will want this one more?

While I think Florida ultimately wins this game straight up, I like Cincinnati in the college football betting odds. This group isn’t going to feel sorry for itself because they lost their coach, and instead come out to show everyone that they don’t need Kelly to win.

Because of it, I’m taking Cincinnati, the underdog based on the bowl game point spread, in this one.

OUR  Pick: Cincinnati +11

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By Cappers Picks

Articles on CappersPicks.com are written by Q (the Head Honcho) at Cappers Picks or by our resident "in house" handicapper Razor Ray Monohan! Enjoy the free picks folks! "Pad that bankroll one day at a time!"

One reply on “2009 Sugar Bowl: Cincinnati vs Florida Preview/Pick”

Most of the storylines for this game do not involve any players, rather each team’s head coach. Given the fact that college games do revolve around emotion both these team’s situation at the top spot could have an impact in this game. Given the fact that Cincinnati’s coach is already gone, it may be harder for them to rally around his replacement then it will for the Florida players to rally around Myer.

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