BCS Title Game: Crimson Tide vs. Longhorns Predictions

BCS Championship Preview – Texas Longhorns (13-0) vs. Alabama Crimson Tide (13-0)

Colt McCoy has been able to shatter most of college football’s most notable quarterback records, but breaking the SEC streak in the BCS Championship game is going to be tougher than most of his challenges. The NCAA’s winningest college quarterback lost his Heisman trophy to the Crimson Tide’s Mark Ingram thanks to a poor effort in the Big 12 Championship game against Nebraska. Facing Alabama’s top ranked defense is going to prove whether McCoy is a big game player, and could very well affect his long term NFL draft stock.

Texas averaged the third highest scoring output with 40.7 points per game, while he completed 70.5 percent of his passes for 3,512 yards, 27 touchdowns and 12 picks with a quarterback rating of 147.5. Of course, numbers mean very little when you can’t win a big game. However, losing hasn’t been a part of the Longhorn’s regimen this sports betting season, unless they’re going up against the ncaaf oddsmakers. Texas is just 5-7-1 ATS this season and even though the tight line is indicative of Texas’s chance to win, it’s almost designed to lure the Big 12 bettors out of their worrisome position.

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The Longhorns are the last team to win the BCS Championship since the SEC has gone on a 3-0 winning streak with Florida and LSU dominating the scene late in the decade. Of course, McCoy wasn’t a part of Texas’s gameplan as they rode Vince Young’s big back to a win over USC.

Helping McCoy will be wide receiver stud Jordan Shipley who caught a team leading 106 passes for 1,363 yards and 11 touchdowns. Of course, as Nebraska proved, the Longhorn’s offensive line might not be up to the challenge of stopping a grizzled defensive line, and containing Shipley is actually much easier for a loaded defense.

Thursday, January 7th
Rose Bowl, Pasadena — 8:10pm EST
NCAAF Betting Line: Alabama -4 (46)

The Crimsons Tide rely on a stiff secondary bolstered by Javier Arenas and Mark Baron. Their defensive line, led by Marcell Dareus (6.5 sacks and 31 tackles), has shown a decisive knack for harassing backfield players. In the SEC Championship game against Tim Tebow and the Gators, the Tide rolled right through the offensive line to stump Tebow at 247 yards passing, and gave up just 88 yards rushing against. Florida never got in to rhythm, and couldn’t keep up with Ingram on the score board.

The very same type of game awaits Texas. Though their defense is fast and well coached by Mack Brown, they haven’t had to face a serious offense nearly all season. With Texas Tech rebuilding and Oklahoma trotting out a freshman quarterback after the injury to Sam Bradford, Texas had a veritable patty cake season compared to what they’ve dealt with in the past. When they clashed with a riley Nebraska team led by Ndamukong Suh, they simply couldn’t get rolling offensively.

The Tide do not have a player at the level of Suh (who does?) but they’re used to showing up in big games on both sides of the ball. Against Florida they won 32-13, and defeated Auburn a week prior 26-21. They’ve defeated LSU 24-15. In fact, the most points anybody has scored on this team is the 24 points scored by the Hokies in the first week of college football betting. Only three teams have breached the 20-point barrier against Alabama, and it’s no secret that the SEC is a much more difficult conference to have steady stats in than any other.

Stat sheet analysts will highlight Texas’s 62.9 rushing yards allowed average on defense, but that is a skewed stat. The Big 12 is notorious for being a passing conference and Texas’s habit of ramping up the score early on has led teams to chase them through the air. Alabama’s betting backers can rest assured that Colt McCoy will be contained on Thursday night, and that means that Alabama can do what it does best: pray on the weaknesses of the opposing defense.

Heisman Trophy winner, Mark Ingram, came on huge in the latter half of the season to clinch the esteemed title over McCoy and Stanford’s Toby Gerhart (who should’ve won in my opinion), but he’s a force to be reckoned with. Ingram piled up 113 yards and 3 rushing touchdowns against Florida and is balanced by the under appreciated Greg McElroy at quarterback.

McElroy is the closest thing you get to a “game manager” at the college level, but he does it extremely well. Nick Saban likes to test his opposition by using the first five minutes to see if his opposition is keying on the run or the pass. Then he simply goes the other way. It’s a simple, yet extremely effective, method. Check the numbers. If McElroy has a huge game, Ingram doesn’t need to do a lot of work. Ingram’s blowing up? McElroy nails a couple key passes to keep the defense off balance.

The Tide rolled right through the Florida Gators’ defense, and you can’t tell me that Texas has a stiffer defense than that one. The Gators are a faster, stronger version of what Texas rolls out and the Longhorns haven’t faced an offense as balanced and controlling on the field as Alabama’s.

It’s the same old tune in the BCS Championship game as the SEC dominates yet again to net its fourth crystal trophy in the same number of seasons. Colt McCoy proved in the last two seasons that he doesn’t blow big games with massive amounts of pressure, but the game against Nebraska proved that it’s still a part of who he is. With the stakes as big as they get, and the scariest defense in the league feasting on his throat, McCoy is about to prove why he’s not ready to be a champion yet.

Free Pick: Alabama -4 (UNDER)

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