Auburn Vs. Mississippi
10/31/09: 12:00 PM EST
Line: Ole Miss -4
Records – Ole Miss: 5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS
Auburn: 5-3 SU, 4-4 ATS
Mitch’s Free Pick Against The Spread College Football
It’s a traditional SEC match up as the Mississippi Rebels go on the road to take on the Auburn Tigers.
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Auburn started the season strong and won it’s first five games, the first four of which were at home, but since then it has been three consecutive losses. Whether it be that the schedule is significantly more difficult or just the team arriving back at earth, or teams being able to game plan against the new coaching staff through film, or a combination of all of these, the results have been the same, a loss. Auburn needs to right the ship in a hurry as outside of a game against FCS Furman, there are nothing but two more dates with SEC teams Alabama and Georgia left on the regular season schedule. Auburn was passed on almost at will by LSU in their last game, something they are going to have to remedy immediately against a skilled passing team like Ole Miss. QB Chris Todd, who started the season so strong, has really been struggling not throwing a touchdown in the last three games and throwing for only 47 yards total last week in the loss at LSU.
Ole Miss has faced it’s share of disappointment this season but showed tremendous resiliency last week against Arkansas. Arkansas came in with one of the more high powered offenses in the SEC and fought back several times after Ole Miss started with a quick touchdown. Dexter McCluster had a monster day in the win going for 260 all purpose yards and Jevan Snead looked like the player we saw at the end of last season.
While the offense gets a lot of the credit, the defense is one of the best scoring defenses in the country allowing right around 13 points per game and is particularly good agains pass allowing just 152 yards per game. This could compound to Auburn’s passing slump.
Auburn is 3-10 against the spread in their last 13 SEC games, 1-4 against the spread in their last five games overall, and 0-7 against the spread in their last seven games following a non cover. Mississippi is 9-2 against the spread in their last 11 road games, 5-2 against the spread in their last seven SEC games, and 6-1 against the spread when playing on the road against team with a winning home record. The road team has covered in nine of the last 13 games in this series.
I think Auburn is headed in the right direction but the way the flow of this team is going, this seems to be catching the wrong team at the wrong time. While I think they may play Alabama a little tougher than many expect in a few weeks, I don’t think this game set sup well for the Tigers and I think Ole Miss gets the cover.
Mitch’s Pick: Mississippi -4
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