Venue/ Stadium Bill Snyder Stadium, MANHATTAN, KS
Both these Big 12 teams have struggled lately losing their last 2 games and Texas A&M heads into this game shorthanded with leading rusher Christine Michael, who is out with a knee injury.
Time/Date: 3:30 PM EST Saturday, November 12, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline
Moneyline: Texas A&M -205 / Kansas State +175
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -4.5
Over/Under: 65.5
Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Kansas State Wildcats Preview
THE main reason the Wildcats are the underdog even though they are at home and are ranked is the fact that A&M has a solid passing offense and KSU has given up1,022 passing yards and 9 TD in their last 2 games. NCAAF lines have Texas A&M as 4.5-point away favorites with a total of 65.5.
In their last games Texas A&M lost to Oklahoma 41-25 and Kansas State lost a 52-45 barnburner to Oklahoma State.
The Aggies have the nation’s 12th ranked passing attack led by QB Ryan Tannehill and his 2 main targets are the WR duo of Ryan Swope and Jeff Fuller, who have combined for 110 catches and almost 1,400 yards this season. Tannehill has passed for over 300 yards in each of his last 2 games, but in those games he was picked off 4 times. He will have another HUGE game facing a KSU pass defense that ranks 117th in the nation, but he has to avoid the turnover.
With Christine Michael out Cyrus Gray is THE guy in the backfield and has over 700 rushing yards this season. He may find it tough to move the chains on the ground facing KSU and their 12th ranked run defense. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
Kansas State is all about the run on offense, as they rarely air it out. QB Collin Klein and RB John Hubert have rushed for over 1,650 yards this season and if the Aggies can keep this duo in check they will leave the Sunflower State with a win.
It is important that the Wildcats do not get down early or down big, as if that happens they will have to go to the air more to come back. That will put them behind the 8-ball since they only rank 112th in the nation in passing yards per game.
The A&M special team’s D has to play well against Tyler Lockett, who was named Big 12 special teams player of the week after racking up 315 all-purpose yards last week on the loss to Oklahoma State.
Betting Trends
The Aggies have not been a good team to bet on this season at only 2-7 ATS and has an O/U record of 5-4 and KSU is 7-2 ATS and has an O/U record of 6-3.
Texas A&M is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite, 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games facing teams with a winning record, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.
Kansas State is 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as an underdog and has an Over record of 4-0 in their last 4 games.
Jason’s Pick: To hell with the trends! Texas A&M will rack up a ton of yards in this game through the air and they will win and cover the spread. In the last 4 games between A&M and KSU the total has gone Over and after this Saturday that trend will continue, as the score will go Over the 65.5 posted total.
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