Venue/ Stadium: Jones AT&T Stadium, LUBBOCK, TX
The Aggies are coming off 2 tough losses to ranked teams and they only lost those games by a combined 5 points. Texas Tech has started the season well winning their first 4 games, but they have yet to play a ranked team and in their last 2 wins their defense has struggled giving up an average of 34 points.
Time/Date: 7 PM EST Saturday, October 8, 2011
NCAA Odds From: BetOnline.com
Moneyline: Texas A&M -350 / Texas Tech +290
Spread (ATS): Texas A&M -9
Over/Under: 71.5
No. 24 Texas A&M Aggies vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders Preview
However, the Red Raiders do have the nation’s 9th ranked passing offense and they may have to light up the scoreboard in this game facing a great A&M offense. NCAAF lines has visiting Texas A&M as 9-point favorites with a high total of 71.5.
In their last games Texas Tech beat Kansas 45-34 and Texas A&M lost to Arkansas 42-38.
This game will be the last Big 12 game between these 2 schools from the Lone Star State with A&M leaving to join the SEC next season.
Texas Tech has the nation’s 49th ranked defense, but they have yet to face a team with the offensive firepower the Aggies have. For Tech to pull off the upset they will need a great game from QB Seth Doege, who has completed 73.3% of his passes with 14 TD and only 1 INT.
Doege has a great WR corps, but the big question is will he have time to find them? The Aggies’ pass rush leads the nation with 18 sacks on the season and while Texas Tech has only given up 5 sacks on the season they must keep the Aggies off their QB or they will lose big.
Tech RB Eric Stephens (468 yards 7 TD) has rushed for 260 yards in his last 2 games, but he will be going up against a Texas A&M run defense that ranks 5th in the nation. Basically, this game is on Doege’s shoulders, but luckily he will be facing an Aggies’ pass defense that ranks dead last in the nation. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
One thing the Aggies can do to ensure a win is run the ball and keep Doege on the sidelines. There is a good chance of that happening, as the Aggies, led by Christine Michael (408 yards 5 TD) and Cyrus Gray (363 yards 6 TD), are averaging 223.8 rushing yards per game. On top of that the Red Raiders have struggled against the run this season with the nation’s 117th ranked rushing defense.
The Aggies are not one-sided on offense with the nation’s 24th ranked passing offense. Ryan Tannehill has passed for over 245 yards in every game this season, but he has to not turn the ball over and has 4 INT and only 2 TD in his last 2 games. Still, in last season’s win over Tech Tannehill had 449 passing yards and 4 TD.
Betting Trends
This season the Aggies are 1-3 ATS and have an O/U record of 2-2 and the Red Raiders are at 3-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 3-1.
The Aggies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 road games, 6-1 ATS in their last 7 Big 12 games, and has an Over record of 6-1 in their last 7 games as a road favorite.
The Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games, 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games as a home underdog, and has an Over record of 4-1 in their last 5 games as a home underdog.
Jason’s Pick: The Aggies’ rushing offense will be the key to A&M winning this game and their pass rush will not keep Doege from having a big game, but they will sack him a few times and their rushing defense will stuff the run. Texas A&M will snap their 2-game losing streak and win and cover handing Tech their first loss of the season. Also, in 5 of the last 6 games between these 2 Big 12 rivals the total has gone Over and that trend will continue in this game.
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