NCAA Football Betting Futures – 2011 Big 10 Season Preview
So the Big 10, complete with 12 teams, is the same Big 10 as last year. Capiche?
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Yep, the Big Ten now has 12 teams. And it’s still called the Big Ten. We have to get over it.
Let’s focus instead on what should be a great year of smashmouth football from the Big 10 conference.
Multiple teams have a shot at the Big Ten title this year. Leading the way by a hair at the books is Nebraska at +150. That’s quite the honor for a team just joining the Big Ten this season. The Cornhuskers will hang their hats on their elite defense, which features some true studs in Lavonte David, Jared Crick and Alfonzo Dennard. Their offense is a bit of a question mark for 2011, however. They were a powerhouse running team last season but new offensive co-ordinator Tim Beck has been very secretive about the scheme going forward.
It will be interesting to see how the Huskers use Taylor Martinez, who excelled as a runner but not so much as a passer last season.
Wisconsin is right behind at +175. It’s hard not to get excited about the Badgers’ running game, which was insane last season. Montee Ball ran for 777 yards and 14 touchdowns in the final five games. James White, the “change of pace back,” topped 1,000 yards himself. Wisconsin has a good secondary and possibly the best defensive player in the conference in linebacker Chris Borland.
But can this team compete with Scott Tolzien gone and sophomore Jon Budmayr getting the reins at quarterback? It’s quite the question.
Penn State is next at +450. Quarterback Matt McGloin showed plenty of potential at quarterback down the stretch last season but reportedly hasn’t locked down the starting job. Penn State has some solid players in the secondary and on the offensive line but their D-line is a concern after Pete Passaro tore his ACL in March.
2011 probably would’ve been Ohio State’s (+500) year but coach Jim Tressel and starting quarterback Terrelle Pryor are gone after the memorabilia scandal. The Buckeyes’ forecast has obviously changed. They still have talent all over the field, including a solid offensive line, but Ohio State has little chance to win the conference because it has so many important players suspended early in the season.
That list includes starting tailback Dan Herron, who ran for 16 scores last year, and wideout DeVier Posey.
What about Michigan State (+800)? The Spartans are an intriguing sleeper. Kirk Cousins hasn’t blossomed into an elite quarterback yet but he has a deep, capable receiving corps that should mesh well with his accurate arm. And watch out on “D” for Williams Gholston, cousin of former NFL first-rounder Vernon. He’ll anchor what could be a powerhouse front seven alongside Jerel Worthy. [soliloquy id=”82219″]
If Cousins improves enough, Michigan State has a shot, as all the teams above the Spartans on this list have questions at quarterback.
Iowa fades into the background at +1500. To me, the Hawkeyes are a poor man’s Wisconsin. They too have a good running game – just not as impressive as Wisconsin’s. Iowa has an excellent front seven on “D,” too. But, like Wisconsin, they have question marks at quarterback. Ricky Stanzi is gone and new starter James Vandenberg threw eight passes last season.
That makes it hard to justify betting on Iowa despite the decent value.
Northwestern (+1500) is the deep sleeper of this conference. If nothing else, it should be an exciting offensive team to watch.
Dan Persa is reportedly healed from his ruptured Achilles’ tendon. That’s big news for NU, as Persa led the country in completion percentage at 73.5 while also rushing for 50-plus yards per game. Almost the entire offense returns, with seniors galore. However, Northwestern’s defense struggled last year and only returns seven starters to boot.
The Wildcats will probably allow too many points to really contend.
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The Big Ten pick isn’t easy. Nebraska and Wisconsin could be powerhouses. Michigan State (or even Michigan with Denard Robinson) could make waves thanks to its quarterbacking, as could Northwestern. It’s not a sure thing but I like Wisconsin.
This team was just so dominant on the ground down the stretch in 2010 that I think it can win even with uncertainty at quarterback. Scott Tolzien was capable last season but it’s not like he was the offensive focal point anyway.
The Badgers can do it without him.
Pick: Wisconsin +175
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